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Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Daily Alert: Economy


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February 19, 2013
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The 40 Most Unusual Economic Indicators The 40 Most Unusual Economic Indicators
by Matthew Boesler on Feb 19, 2013, 12:13 PM
Forget the GDP report. This is how you should track the economy.


Goldman's Top Economist Explains Why Things Have Slowed Down, But Why A Recession Looks Even Less Likely Now Goldman's Top Economist Explains Why Things Have Slowed Down, But Why A Recession Looks Even Less Likely Now
by Joe Weisenthal on Feb 19, 2013, 4:44 AM
Fiscal policy is a drag, but tail risks have diminished.


JAPANESE EXPORTS BEAT EXPECTATIONS AND JUMP 6.4% JAPANESE EXPORTS BEAT EXPECTATIONS AND JUMP 6.4%
by Sam Ro on Feb 19, 2013, 6:52 PM
Economists expected only 5.6 percent growth.


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Wall Street Always Predicts The Same Amount Of Growth, And They're Always Wrong

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Tuesday, February 19, 2013
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Wall Street Always Predicts The Same Amount Of Growth, And They're Always Wrong

The analysts at Goldman Sachs recently published a report on how behavioral biases basically screw up every aspect of the investment process.

For example, take Wall Street's forecasts for revenue growth.

"[T]op-line variability is consistently underestimated," they write. "Consensus revenue growth forecasts will typically start in the 5%-6% range for the market at large, but the true outcome almost always turns out to be a significantly higher or lower level. While nine of the last ten years’ consensus revenue growth forecasts have been initially in the 5%-6% range, no year saw actual growth within that range."

"Clustering at mediocrity," they write.  "Analysts are reluctant to take a significant view on growth ahead of the date (conservatism, risk aversion), and/or are anchoring to economists who themselves are making the same mistake."

Here's the chart they include that shows how top-line growth rates almost always start at the same place, but very greatly throughout the year.

Read »


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