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Tuesday, April 22, 2014

You Wouldn't Lie

Although I guess there are some lies that parents just have to tell their kids.

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The Swedish model

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Until about six months ago, Sweden was routinely trotted out as an example of a model economy (not least by Sweden itself). But now it's time to start talking about Swedish deflation. In March, the economy's consumer prices were down was down 0.6% from the previous March, following a -0.2% CPI inflation rate in February. CPI inflation has been hovering around zero since November 2012.

The Swedish economy has been locked in an epic hawk/dove battle for more than three years. Between 2010 and 2011, the central bank increased interest rates to 2% from 0.25%. It quickly began lowering rates again in fall 2011, most recently cutting the rate to 0.75% from 1% (where it had been for a year) in December. The central bank wrote in its April report that it expects to keep rates unchanged for the next year, as "inflation has been weaker than expected for some time".

The hawks, including the central bank's governor, worried if the Riksbank did not raise rates in 2010, inflation would take off. Inflation has been low for some time, yet interest rates are still high relative to the negative rates former deputy governor Lars Svensson has called for (while still at the central bank, he was a force behind its innovative negative interest rate policy back in 2009). The reason rates remain high, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, is that the Riksbank "has been trying to 'lean against the wind' to curb house price rises and consumer credit, pioneering a new policy that gives weight to the dangers of asset bubbles".

Alen Mattich reports that housing prices are up 70% from where they were in 2005, with rents up 30%. But the country is also dealing with a significant housing shortage, writes the WSJ. For all that Sweden is "a country with a small population but vast tracts of land", as Mattich puts it, its population is booming due to immigration, and getting new housing built in the cities is a bureaucratic nightmare. According to the WSJ, Stockholm needs 17,000 new homes a year through 2030 to keep up with population growth. Between 2000 and 2012, the city only managed to average 7,250.

Svensson, who was so fed up with the Riksbank's hawkishness he quit last April, writes that "the Swedish housing market seems robust and not fragile, in contrast to a bubble". He has been warning of deflation from the bank's tight monetary policy since 2010. Deflation dwarfs housing prices and household debt on the list of Swedish economic problems, he says. Paul Krugman agrees, calling Sweden "an object lesson in the power of sadomonetarism". — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Yikes
Class, risk, and regulation at 18,000 feet - Jon Krakauer

New Normal
Get rich or die younger: the shrinking lifespans of poor US women - WSJ

Please Update Your Records
Wind turbines are "the smallest threat to birds worthy of mention" - Bloomberg

Primary Sources
"There's no technological reason for you to have 10,000 dime­sized antenna": the Aereo oral arguments - Supreme Court

EU Mess
"EU institutions have become instruments for creditors to impose their will on debtors" - Philippe Legrain

Governance
Citi renews its commitment to shareholder engagement by holding its annual meeting in St Louis with no webcast - Matt Zeitlin

USA! USA!
Americans think owning a home is better for them than it is - Catherine Rampell
The rich like to invest in real estate and stocks; the poor prefer gold - Barry Ritholtz
The American middle class is no longer the world's richest - David Leonhardt and Kevin Quealy

Regulations
JPGoldman Stanley intact: Basel eases counterparty limits - Bloomberg

Real Talk
It's not PowerPoint's fault you are boring - Lisa Pollack

Takedowns
Fun with arbitrary numbers: the trouble with measuring the speed of tech adoption - Gizmodo

Bad Data
"The crimes reported there were real, but they actually happened somewhere else" - LAT

Servicey
"Global megacities owe you nothing. Never forget that" - Conor Sen

Journalism 3.0
"Looking for Satoshi Nakamoto is how I procrastinate instead of playing 2048" - Adrian Chen

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Business Today: Wall Street up for sixth straight session on earnings, healthcare

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04/22/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Wall Street up for sixth straight session on earnings, healthcare
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as a host of solid earnings reports, along with strength in the healthcare sector, helped lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their sixth straight advance.
AT&T revenue increases on promotional offering
NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Inc reported higher quarterly revenue on Tuesday, slightly above Wall Street's expectations, boosted by a promotional offering to bill customers for devices separately from their wireless plans.
U.S. justices show little support for Aereo TV in copyright fight
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Supreme Court justices on Tuesday appeared skeptical over online TV startup Aereo Inc's position in a copyright fight with major media companies, but several raised concerns about how a ruling in favor of broadcasters could affect increasingly popular cloud computing services.
U.S. home resales hit 1-1/2 year low, but may be stabilizing
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales fell to their lowest level in more than 1-1/2 years in March, but there were signs a recent downward trend that has plagued the housing market may be drawing to an end.
GM seeks U.S. court protection against ignition lawsuits
(Reuters) - General Motors Co filed a motion in a U.S. court to enforce a bar on lawsuits stemming from ignition defects in cars sold before its 2009 bankruptcy as it fights proposed class action litigation that seeks to set aside the restriction.
Valeant, Ackman offer to buy Botox maker Allergan for $47 billion
(Reuters) - Canada's Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc said on Tuesday it and activist investor Bill Ackman made an unsolicited $47 billion bid to buy Botox maker Allergan Inc as it seeks to become one of the world's five biggest drug companies.
Novartis and GSK trade assets as pharma industry reshapes
ZURICH/LONDON (Reuters) - Novartis and GlaxoSmithKline agreed to trade more than $20 billion worth of assets on Tuesday to bolster their best businesses and exit weaker ones as the drug industry contends with healthcare spending cuts and generic competition.
Starbucks to open La Boulange location in Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Starbucks Corp is planning to open a La Boulange location in Los Angeles, marking the first opening outside of San Francisco, the coffee chain said on Thursday.
Citigroup's leaders say company is still too complex
ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - The two men at the top of Citigroup Inc , the third-biggest U.S. bank and the most international, acknowledged on Tuesday that the company must do more to simplify itself.
Comcast adds video subscribers, beats Street
(Reuters) - Comcast Corp, the largest U.S. cable operator, posted higher first-quarter revenue and net income on Tuesday and showed it could add video subscribers for two quarters in a row, a rare sight in the cable industry.
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Leading economic indicators rise in March
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