It's jobs day! The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the economy added 288,000 jobs in April, bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.3% from 6.7% last month. Numbers from the last two months were revised up by 36,000 jobs in total, putting the economy now in its third straight month with jobs growth over 200,000. Over at Brookings, Jonathan Wright uses his own seasonal adjustment algorithm, which takes into account several more years of historical data than BLS does, and estimates that the economy actually created 304,000 jobs. Bill McBride once again updated his monster chart on recent recession job losses. Seven years after the beginning of the Great Recession, the economy is just 113,000 jobs away from its previous peak. "It is possible that 2014 will be the best year since 1999", he says. While the headline numbers were "shout-from-the-roof-tops, pop-the-Champagne fantastic", says Neil Irwin, the report "pairs the excellent surface news with a soft underbelly". Century Foundation fellow Daniel Alpert tweets that he's "never seen such a huge divergence" between the leading numbers and the underlying data. A big part of the disconnect comes from the unemployed becoming discouraged and dropping out of the work force. While the economy is creating jobs and the unemployment rate is falling, the labor force participation rate continues to fall. At 62.8%, it's now at its lowest level since the late 1970s. The Federalist did the math and says if the labor force participation rate had continued at its June 2009 level (the official end of the recession), the unemployment rate would still be above 10%. Of course, the drop in the LFPR since then isn't all because of discouraged workers, part of that decline is explained by demographic shifts. "The declining labor force is something we're just going to have to get used to", says Jordan Weissmann. The fact that workers' hours and earnings continue to be flat is also discouraging. "Both of those are pretty good predictors of future demand -- and future hiring -- so there's not much hint of better times ahead", says Matt O'Brien. Jon Hilsenrath writes that the numbers make it pretty clear the Fed will continue the taper, but add to the confusion about whether it will raise interest rates in the near future. The Fed is in the middle of a big debate over whether the falling unemployment rate means inflation is near (and the Fed needs to raise rates), or whether the large number of part-time and discouraged workers means the Fed needs to keep rates low and continue helping economic growth. This month's report contains plenty of evidence for both sides. — Shane Ferro On to today's links: Wonks More spending, not that many more jobs: making sense of the latest healthcare data - BI Yikes Miami has greater income inequality than Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro - Bloomberg China China's housing and credit boom may be nearing its end - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Let's Hope So The end of employer-provided healthcare may be near - Neil Irwin "Can you build a business by linking to stuff other people have made?" - Re/code Innovation "Just this morning, I uploaded some water into my mouth via cup" - Sam Biddle Servicey "Using a foreign language induces utilitarianism" - Marginal Revolution 4 ways to stop the US from becoming a Piketty-style oligarchy - Matthew O'Brien Crisis Proto The Brooksley Born meeting: when Bob Rubin, Larry Summers, and Greenspan blew a chance to avert the financial crisis - Peter Coy |