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Friday, May 2, 2014

Labor force participation day

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It's jobs day! The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the economy added 288,000 jobs in April, bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.3% from 6.7% last month. Numbers from the last two months were revised up by 36,000 jobs in total, putting the economy now in its third straight month with jobs growth over 200,000.

Over at Brookings, Jonathan Wright uses his own seasonal adjustment algorithm, which takes into account several more years of historical data than BLS does, and estimates that the economy actually created 304,000 jobs. Bill McBride once again updated his monster chart on recent recession job losses. Seven years after the beginning of the Great Recession, the economy is just 113,000 jobs away from its previous peak. "It is possible that 2014 will be the best year since 1999", he says.

While the headline numbers were "shout-from-the-roof-tops, pop-the-Champagne fantastic", says Neil Irwin, the report "pairs the excellent surface news with a soft underbelly". Century Foundation fellow Daniel Alpert tweets that he's "never seen such a huge divergence" between the leading numbers and the underlying data.

A big part of the disconnect comes from the unemployed becoming discouraged and dropping out of the work force. While the economy is creating jobs and the unemployment rate is falling, the labor force participation rate continues to fall. At 62.8%, it's now at its lowest level since the late 1970s. The Federalist did the math and says if the labor force participation rate had continued at its June 2009 level (the official end of the recession), the unemployment rate would still be above 10%. Of course, the drop in the LFPR since then isn't all because of discouraged workers, part of that decline is explained by demographic shifts. "The declining labor force is something we're just going to have to get used to", says Jordan Weissmann.

The fact that workers' hours and earnings continue to be flat is also discouraging. "Both of those are pretty good predictors of future demand -- and future hiring -- so there's not much hint of better times ahead", says Matt O'Brien.

Jon Hilsenrath writes that the numbers make it pretty clear the Fed will continue the taper, but add to the confusion about whether it will raise interest rates in the near future. The Fed is in the middle of a big debate over whether the falling unemployment rate means inflation is near (and the Fed needs to raise rates), or whether the large number of part-time and discouraged workers means the Fed needs to keep rates low and continue helping economic growth. This month's report contains plenty of evidence for both sides. — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Wonks
More spending, not that many more jobs: making sense of the latest healthcare data - BI

Yikes
Miami has greater income inequality than Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro - Bloomberg

China
China's housing and credit boom may be nearing its end - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Let's Hope So
The end of employer-provided healthcare may be near - Neil Irwin
"Can you build a business by linking to stuff other people have made?" - Re/code

Innovation
"Just this morning, I uploaded some water into my mouth via cup" - Sam Biddle

Servicey
"Using a foreign language induces utilitarianism" - Marginal Revolution
4 ways to stop the US from becoming a Piketty-style oligarchy - Matthew O'Brien

Crisis Proto
The Brooksley Born meeting: when Bob Rubin, Larry Summers, and Greenspan blew a chance to avert the financial crisis - Peter Coy

 

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Business Today: Wall Street dips as Ukraine concern offsets upbeat jobs data

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05/2/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Wall Street dips as Ukraine concern offsets upbeat jobs data
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks eased on Friday as concerns about more violence in Ukraine prompted profit-taking ahead of the weekend and offset optimism about the fastest job growth in more than two years.
U.S. job growth jumps, but shrinking labor force a blemish
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers hired workers at the fastest clip in more than two years in April, pointing to a rebound in economic growth after a dreadful winter and keeping the Federal Reserve on track to end bond purchases this year.
U.S. bankruptcy judge urges settlement on GM ignition defects
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. bankruptcy judge on Friday urged settlement talks in a dispute between General Motors Co and plaintiffs seeking compensation for the lost value of their cars stemming from a massive recall over a faulty ignition switch, though neither side seemed ready to negotiate quite yet.
U.S. factory orders up, durable goods revised higher
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods rose for a second straight month in March, suggesting strength in manufacturing and the broader economy at the end of the first quarter.
AstraZeneca rejects Pfizer's raised bid of $106 billion
LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc increased its offer for AstraZeneca Plc to 63 billion pounds ($106 billion) on Friday, but the British company promptly rejected the proposal, which would create the world's biggest pharmaceuticals company.
U.S. prosecutors to drop two of seven charges against Rajaratnam's brother
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. prosecutors plan to drop two securities fraud charges against former Galleon Group hedge fund portfolio manager Rengan Rajaratnam, the younger brother of Raj Rajaratnam, who founded the firm and was convicted of insider trading in 2011.
Exclusive: U.S. anti-money laundering authority faces hiring probe - sources
NEW YORK/ST LOUIS (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department has frozen all recruitment by its anti-money laundering arm and forced the agency to rescind 11 job offers, after an investigation found it violated the federal employment code during an aggressive hiring push, according to several government officials.
Airbus says A330 'more challenging', supply base stable
PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus warned on Friday it faces increased challenges in managing the order book for its A330 wide-body jet beyond 2016, highlighting the stakes involved as the European planemaker considers an engine revamp for its most profitable long-distance jet.
New Fiat Chrysler plan to put Marchionne to the test
MILAN (Reuters) - Newly-merged Fiat Chrysler will unveil its long-awaited five-year plan on Tuesday, with chief executive Sergio Marchionne under pressure to show he can translate years of canny dealmaking into a thriving global autos business.
Shareholders to go public with Pimco worries at Allianz AGM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Allianz shareholders will publicly press its top executives next week to address the underperformance of its Pimco fund management unit in the hope that the German insurer will look more closely at management problems there.
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