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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Valeant effort

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Things are getting uglier between Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Allergan, the maker of Botox. The former, with a little help from hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, is attempting a hostile takeover of the latter (previous coverage here). Over the last few weeks, Valeant has been slowing upping its bid for the company (to $53 billion from the original $45 billion). That's pretty normal in mergers and acquisitions, says Daniel Hoffman of Pharmaceutical Business Research Associates. What's interesting about Valeant's bid is that "within this same span of a few weeks, attitudes in both pharma and the investment community made a radical turn from mild approval to complete revulsion."

The latest development in this saga, writes David Gelles, is that Valeant plans to take an exchange offer to shareholders, offering them a mix of cash and stock for their shares. Matt Levine says this is "mostly a cosmetic development" since "the shareholders can't accept the exchange offer until Allergan rescinds its poison pill, and that's not gonna happen unless the board agrees or is voted out at the special meeting Valeant is trying to call." Allergan's poison pill aims at preventing Ackman significantly expanding his 9.7% stake in the company by offering discounted shares to other stakeholders if any unapproved investor acquires 10% or more of Allergan's stock.

Perhaps the more interesting development came on Monday, when it came out that at an earlier stage in the deal, Morgan Stanley sent Allergan some emails denigrating Valeant. Allergan released the emails as part of a larger package to show why shareholders should reject Valeant's offer. This is awkward since Morgan Stanley is now working on Valeant's side. Levine, in a separate post, notes that the job of an investment bank is to get hired in a big M&A deal, so it's pretty normal to pitch both sides. "What Morgan Stanley didn't count on was the incredibly intense hostility that this deal has engendered," he writes. Valeant's CEO stood by Morgan Stanley, using the opportunity to suggest that, "it's clear that Allergan's release [of the emails] is a sign of desperation."

John Hempton at Bronte Capital has started a series of posts about Valeant, which he's not too impressed with — there are seven so far, including one on corporate jets. Basically, Hempton takes issue with Valeant's accounting, and thinks it might be close to going bust. Valeant had a "fact-based presentation" yesterday, addressing some of Hempton's concerns on a conference call. Hempton responds here. Dan McCrum has also been on the Valeant financials, and writes that it's "a company that only makes a profit after a lot of accounting adjustments." Doesn't look like this fight's going to get prettier anytime soon. — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Primary Sources
Get your white hot FOMC statement action here - Federal Reserve
Tracked changes from the last FOMC statement - WSJ

Bold Ideas
What if London had its own interest rate? - Izabella Kaminska

Fine Distinctions
DOJ "fines on average are seven times larger for foreign companies than for domestic ones" - Jesse Eisinger

Wonks
Does culture matter for economic growth? - Dietz Vollrath

Long Reads
Krugman on Geithner's new book - NYRB

Billionaire Whimsy
Chen Guangbiao put ads in the NYT and WSJ offering 1,000 poor people in New York a free lunch and cash for occupational training - Telegraph

Patent Power
Washington Redskins: Death by patent office - Neil Irwin

Niche Markets
"By weight and volume and size, it's the most valuable item in the world" - NYT

Oxpeckers
The Financial Times is changing the way it charges for ads - Sam Petulla

Science Says
"Smart people prefer wine" - Alice Robb

Disruptions
Hot new app: "You usually understand what the Yo means based on who you get it from and when you get it" - Judd Legum

Inefficient Markets
It's really hard to figure out if online ads work - Jordan Weissmann

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06/18/2014
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