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Thursday, June 5, 2014

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ECB goes negative

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Europe has reached the zero lower bound. After its June meeting today, the European Central Bank announced a number of policy changes (a "swarm", according to Joseph Cotterill). Bloomberg's Maxime Sbaihi helpfully chartified the ECB's actions:

BpX5eEVIIAIZ-KR.jpg

But will it work? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

"The lesson today: Don't underestimate Mario Draghi. Or the ECB, for that matter", writes the WSJ's Moneybeat team. The biggest move is probably the -0.1% deposit rate — meaning banks have to pay the ECB in order to park their money there overnight (here's a more detailed explainer of negative rates). This is for two reasons, says Neil Irwin: first, if it's expensive to keep money at the ECB, banks will hopefully do something else with it, like lend it out. Second, if it is expensive in general to keep money in Europe, the ECB hopes the price of the euro will fall in currency markets and inflation will rise — something Europe desperately needs.

Frances Coppola is not impressed with the ECB's actions. "Banks lend if they choose to - if the balance of risk versus return works in their favour. If it doesn't, no amount of reserves will make them lend. They will hoard money instead," she writes. Tyler Cowen says he once liked the idea of negative rates, but has since changed his mind. "I think it will represent more of a tax on future lending than a spur to current lending". Matt O'Brien isn't that excited, either, though for a different reason: "As usual, the ECB might be doing too little, years too late. Charging banks to park cash at the ECB would have helped more back when banks actually had lots of cash parked at the ECB".

Cullen Roche says this negative rate policy has been tried before, in Denmark in 2012, but it didn't really work. Could things be different this time? Maybe. However, he says, "I don't think this is a huge deal.  In fact, it's probably more experimental than anything else". The cut is really too small to make any impact anyway, say the Bloomberg View editors.

Paul Vigna notes that the euro originally fell against the dollar today, to just above 1.35 after opening at 1.36, but then started rising again, ending the day at 1.3661. "It's a troubling sign that Mr. Draghi and the ECB didn't go far enough, that he didn't convince the market he's making good on his 2012 pledge to do 'whatever it takes'", he says. — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Correlation of the Day
Satellite images of nighttime city lights are an accurate indicator of economic growth - Richard Florida

Generation Debt
What Americans don't know about student loan collections - New York Fed

Important Wine News
Wine fraud is on the rise, and physicists are being brought in to stop it - NPR

White Collar Punishment
Ignoring your coworkers is worse than bullying them - Pacific Standard

Good Questions
Why hasn't economic growth led to less poverty? - Neil Irwin

Crime and/or Punishment
The US charges against BNP have nothing to do with financial stability - Felix Salmon

Investigations
The scandal in God's bank - Rachel Sanderson

 

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Business Today: UAW's Williams to U.S. automakers: 'no more concessions'

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06/5/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
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Fed officials put financial stability concerns on front burner
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Chrysler recalls 10,700 SUVs for cruise control defect
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ECB hurls cash at sluggish euro zone economy, seeks to force bank lending
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank launched a raft of measures on Thursday to fight low inflation and boost the euro zone economy, cutting rates, imposing negative interest rates on its overnight depositors and offering banks new long-term funds.
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Obama deflects French pressure to intervene in BNP fine row
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Michigan AG charges Chesapeake with racketeering and fraud
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