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Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Multiplication nation

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"You can't legislate demographics", says Derek Thompson, surveying the economic drag of America's low birthrate. Blame, in part, the world-record cost of giving birth in America, and the recession, for the decline of babies.

Reihan Salam and Matthew Klein don't want to legislate for demographics, but they do want to tax incentivize for them. Here's Salam's solution:

Who should pay more? Nonparents who earn more than the median household income, just a shade above $51,000... We all benefit from the work of parents. Each new generation reinvigorates our society with its youthful vim and vigor. As my childless friends and I grow crankier and more decrepit, a steady stream of barely postpubescent brainiacs writes catchy tunes and invents breakthrough technologies that keep us entertained and make us more productive. The willingness of parents to bear and nurture children saves us from becoming an economically moribund nation of hateful curmudgeons.

Not everyone is ready to write a rejoinder to Rust Cohle-esque anti-natalism into the tax code. Matt Yglesias wrote in 2009 that a focus on the economic consequences of the birth rate is a vestigial agrarian impulse. His preferred policy is essentially fertility neutrality: "To deliberately constrain people from having large families would be abhorrent, but it's not clear to me that we should be going out of our way to encourage them to do so".    

Choosing not to have a child has fairly straightforward economic benefits, beyond avoiding ten plus thousand dollars in medical costs. BuzzFeed's Anna North says that there are economic benefits of birth control: "56% of women said contraception had allowed them to support themselves financially; 51% said it had helped them finish their education. And 50% said it had help them get or keep a job." Part of America's falling birth rate is the plummeting rate of teen pregnancy, which is an unalloyed good.     

A very easy way to make more Americans is to let in more people into the country who want to be here. Overall US population growth was just 0.7% in 2007, so why not, Ezra Klein asked, pass immigration reform. "Immigration is essentially the importation of new workers. It's akin to raising the birth rate, only easier, because most of the newcomers are old enough to work".

Religious incentives can, in highly specific cases, work too. Georgia saw a 20% rise in births in 2008 after the head of the country's Orthodox church promised to personally baptize any baby of parents with more than two kids. – Ben Walsh

On to today's links:

Charts
The US shale boom is hurting Africa's oil exports, not the Middle East - Izabella Kaminska

That's Totally Reasonable
Frequent-trader Cliff Asness: HFT probably lowers costs, but "we can't be 100% sure" - WSJ

Alpha
Working at the family office formerly known at the hedge fund SAC isn't that attractive any more - Matthew Goldstein

Primary Sources
The McCutcheon v FEC decision: no caps on campaign contributions - Supreme Court

Data Points
The will be a projected $1 billion in additional "McCutcheon Money" between now and 2020 - Demos

Must Read
Everything about Choire Sicha's review of Ariana Huffington's new book is wonderful - Bookforum

Study Says
Does benign violation explain why "Cost of Living Now Outweighs Benefits" is funny? - NYer

Mt Dox
Chinese regulators are telegraphing a Bitcoin crackdown - FT

Busted Booms
The TXU buyout is not ending well for Goldman, KKR, and TPG - Bloomberg

Strange Bloomberg Headlines
Billy Salomon Turns 100 as Flash Trades Replace Handshake - Bloomberg

Oxpeckers
In defense of the paparazzi and gossip - Pacific Standard

Defenestrations
Blythe Masters quits after 27 years at JP Morgan - Reuters
Blythe Masters, roastmaster - Matthew Zeitlin

Dubious Data
Wall St analysts are finally saying the ADP jobs number is useless - Rob Wile

Takedowns
The Ryan budget is an exercise in obfuscation and hypocrisy: "no one should take seriously its claim to balance the budget" - Robert Greenstein

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What have Emma Stone and Andrew Garfield have been up to lately? Oh, just traveling the world, spreading their perfection.

IN CASE YOU'D FORGOTTEN...

The 1991 Barbie calendar was ridiculous. It even featured Ice Capades Barbie. Never forget how many sparkles were needed to make her look like this. Flickr: wishbook

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Business Today: Wall Street closes higher, S&P at another record

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04/2/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Wall Street closes higher, S&P at another record
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed at another record high on Wednesday as private-sector labor market data suggested that the economy was slowly building momentum after a winter-related pullback earlier in the year.
U.S. senator accuses GM of 'culture of cover-up' in recalls
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - General Motors Co CEO Mary Barra came under withering attack for her company's decade-long failure to deal with defective parts linked to fatal crashes, in a hearing where U.S. Senators accused the company of "criminal" behavior and "a culture of cover-up."
Ex-JPMorgan trader in 'Whale' scandal open to facing U.S. charges
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A lawyer for a former JPMorgan Chase & Co trader accused of helping to hide trading losses tied to a $6.2 billion financial scandal said on Wednesday his client was open to leaving France to voluntarily face U.S. criminal charges.
Microsoft to offer Windows for free on phones, tablets
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp is to give away its Windows operating system to makers of smartphones and small tablets for consumers as it seeks to make more of an impact on those fast-growing markets and counter the massive success of Google Inc's free Android platform.
Amazon unveils $99 Fire TV set-top box to rival Apple
NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc unveiled a $99 video streaming device dubbed Fire TV on Wednesday, the U.S. e-commerce leader's latest step to beef up its multimedia presence and capitalize on the growing appetite for digital media.
New York judge dismisses lawsuit against Madoff feeder fund
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A New York state judge has dismissed a lawsuit brought by an investor in a fund managed by Tremont Group Holdings, one of the largest feeders of funds into Bernard Madoff's Ponzi scheme.
U.S. regulators warn banks about rise in cyber-attacks
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A group of top U.S. regulators on Wednesday warned about the threat of rising cyber-attacks on bank websites and cash machines, urging the industry to put proper measures in place to guard against fraud.
U.S. gives foreign banks more time on anti-tax dodge law
(Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday gave foreign financial institutions 10 extra days to register with the U.S. government, under a new law to combat offshore tax dodging by Americans that goes into effect on July 1.
U.S. Treasury says pay will not increase for Ally Financial CEO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration is holding the total compensation unchanged this year for the head of bailed-out auto lender Ally Financial , the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.
Apple in talks to buy Japan chip venture to secure iPhone supply chain
TOKYO (Reuters) - Apple Inc, seeking to secure its mobile supply chain, has opened discussions to buy control of a Japanese venture that makes key microchips for its iPhone screens, sources familiar with the matter say.
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