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Monday, January 23, 2012

The Browser daily newsletter [23 Jan 2012]

23 January 2012

 Best of the Moment

The Obama Memos

Ryan Lizza | New Yorker | 23 January 2012

Reflections on Obama's first term, "based on a review of hundreds of pages of internal White House documents". Inside stuff confirms outside impressions. Obama underestimated recession, misread Republican mood, lost his edge Comments

Staring Into The Abyss

John Maudlin | Business Insider | 21 January 2012

Fine, if grim, analysis of Greek crisis, and possible ways forward for eurozone. "For country after country, this is the Endgame. It is the end of the Debt Supercycle. Debt has grown to the size that it cannot be sustained" Comments

The Smart Way To Play God With Earth's Limited Land

Mark Lynas | Scientific American | 20 January 2012

Clever, thought-provoking piece on sustainability. Suggests that "the most positive trend of all in allowing us to minimise our impact on the planet's surface is one more often bemoaned than celebrated: Urbanisation". Here's why Comments

How US Lost Out On iPhone Work

Charles Duhigg and Keith Bradsher | NYT | 21 January 2012

Why Chinese factories make everything Apple. "You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That's the factory next door. A million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? Three hours" Comments

Newt Heads For Florida

John Cassidy | New Yorker | 22 January 2012

One thinks of Cassidy as a business writer, but he's flourishing on the Republican campaign trail. This piece on the second resurrection of Newt Gingrich will demand a place in any serious anthology of 2012 political journalism Comments

The Mechanics Of Choice

Anonymous | APS Observer | 12 January 2012

Background paper on the basics of behavioural psychology. Takes in Kahneman and Tversky's work on irrational choices; and Stanovich and West's model of two rival decision-making systems, one instinctive and one reflective Comments

Does Anyone Else Think These Charts Look Similar?

Does Anyone Else Think These Charts Look Similar?


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Monday, January 23, 2012
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Does Anyone Else Think These Charts Look Similar?

This year we've been talking about two things: The easing of the crisis in Europe and the persistently low yields on US Treasuries.

In fact we've talked about both just today, as Goldman is out with a call urging clients to short US Treasuries on the basis that the low rates do not reflect the improving macro conditions.

We also pointed out earlier how once again, the markets were improving in Europe in exactly the manner that you'd hope: Yields on peripheral bonds are falling, and European banks, the epicenter of the crisis, are enjoying another nice rally.

Not surprisingly, you can draw a pretty straight line between both of these stories.

On Bloomberg.com, we did a 1-year chart comparing 4 things: 10-year Treasury yields (dark orange), European banks (Green), the S&P 500 (light orange), and the STOXX Europe 600 (red).

As you can see, European banks and Treasuries are are almost identical lines, while the S&P 500 and overall European stocks have left performed much better.

And it makes sense. European banks are what you dump when you're feeling extremely nervous. US Treasuries are what you buy when you're feeling extremely nervous. Thus if you're wondering why yields are so low on US Treasuries, even in light of the overall macro data and stock market action, then wonder no more. As long as people are still nervous about the European banking system --- something that's obviously abating, given the rising green line -- then people will cling to Treasuries with their dear life.

KEY: DARK ORANGE = 10-year Treasury rates. GREEN = European Bank Stocks Index. LIGHT ORANGE = S&P 500. RED = STOXX Europe 600. 
Read »


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