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Monday, September 12, 2011

The Big Picture

The Big Picture

Link to The Big Picture

10 Monday Afternoon Reads

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 01:30 PM PDT

Here is my train reading for the ride home:

• China Rescues the World* Again, Italian Bond Edition (WSJ) see also The solvency solution for Europe: time to do the unthinkable (Reuters) and Germany May be Ready to Surrender Over Greece (Bloomberg)
Eveillard: Expect a Mania in Gold Before This is Over (King World News)
• Plan Emerges to Pay for Obama Jobs Bill (Bloomberg) but see How to Make Business Want to Invest Again (NYT)
Simon Johnson: Brace for a Long Recovery From Global Credit Glut (Bloomberg)
Equities: Why I Continue to Sit Out (Joe Fahmy)
• Bubble Boys (NY Mag) see also The New Apple Advantage (Daring Fireball)
• Six Mistakes Housing Investors Make (WSJ)
• Dubya and Me (The American Scholar)
• Novak Djokovic: The Shot and The Confrontation (Grantland)
• F-16 pilot was ready to give her life on Sept. 1 (Washington Post) see also Time to leave 9/11 behind (Washington Post)

What are you reading?

Source: Jeff Saut, Raymond James


Market lift off lows

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 12:06 PM PDT

Market lifted on this headline, *ITALY IN TALKS WITH CHINA FUND TO BUY BONDS, FT SAYS


10 Tips for Making Beautiful Slideshow Presentations

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 12:00 PM PDT

As someone who makes presentations on a regular basis, and does not like most powerpoints, I found this PPT presentation excellent:


How to Focus in the Age of Distraction

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 11:49 AM PDT

Big Bank Chart

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 09:30 AM PDT

Click to enlarge:

Source:
How Banks Got Too Big to Fail, MoJo


Read It Here First: Rising Market Volatity

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 08:15 AM PDT

The front page of today’s New York Times is a very interesting if rather familiar article on the increase in market volatility:

“With these whopping 4 percent swings — up 500 points, down 500 points, up another 500 points, down another 500 points — traders have whiplash. We saw another huge move down Thursday, when the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all lost big, plummeting 3.68 percent, 5.22 percent and 4.46 percent, respectively.

What is going on? It seems that 4 percent — plus or minus — is the new black.”

Ooops, my bad, that was my column published August 19th in the Washington Post, titled Smacked by big market swings, investors should alter their outlook.

The NYTimes piece from today is called Market Swings Are Becoming New Standard, and it begins like this:

“Day after day, stocks swing sharply by hundreds of points. Last week they tumbled 3 percent in the first 90 minutes of trading on Tuesday morning, then on Wednesday closed nearly 3 percent higher and dropped almost 3 percent on Friday. All of this on the heels of unusual back-to-back 4 percent leaps and dives in one week in August.

Now traders head into the week with fresh worries about the chances that Greece will default on its debt and the havoc that would wreak on European banks.

All of this anxiety has caused experts to ask whether there are new forces at work in the stock market that make trading permanently more erratic.”

That’s also good stuff, but for investors, it is rather late to the party.

And that is the key to our Read It Here First series. I am not suggesting that Louise Story in any way copped my piece. Hey, Volatility is out there, you would have to be blind to miss 500 point swings in the Dow.

But the point I want to make is that market practitioners/bloggers have advantages over Old Media in spotting these trends. Its always fun to beat the big guys to the punch on these things. Indeed, we had almost a full month head start. Other researchers, bloggers and strategists who cover markets do get to see their work bubble up eventually to the front page of the NYTimes.

We have been looking at “influence” a lot lately, and it is gratifying to see the new media community influencing the debate (even if we have to use old media to do it!)

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Previously:
The Most Volatile Market Ever (November 25th, 2008)

Stock Market Volatility, Bank of America, Investing (August 9th, 2011)

Sources:
Market Swings Are Becoming New Standard
LOUISE STORY and GRAHAM BOWLEY
NYT, September 11, 2011   
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/business/economy/stock-markets-sharp-swings-grow-more-frequent.html

Smacked by big market swings, investors should alter their outlook
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post Friday, August 19, 2011 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/smacked-by-big-market-swings-investors-should-alter-their-outlook/2011/08/18/gIQAriG8RJ_story.html


The Long-Term Case for Stocks

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT

Richard Sylla, economic historian and professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, talks with WSJ’s E.S. Browning about his formula for predicting market performance.

Source: A Long-Term Case for Stocks

Prof. Sylla is a financial historian at New York University’s Stern School of Business, studying market behavior all the way back to 1790. By analyzing patterns detected years ago with two colleagues, he accurately predicted in 2000 the decade of overall declines that haunted investors.


10 Monday AM Reads

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 06:30 AM PDT

Lots of interesting reading to start the week:

• Buy and Hold Is Not Dead Even Though John Bogle Drank Your Milkshake (Phil Pearlman) see also Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is Upbeat About Stocks (WSJ)
• Is There Gold In Them Thar Hills? (Barron’s)
• The magical world of voodoo 'economists' (Washington Post) see also What caused the recession of 1937-38? (Vox)
• Dividends: Collect, Reinvest, Repeat—for Decades (WSJ)
• Growth is about so much more than just the top rate of tax (Gurardian)
• 20 Quotes from European Leaders About European Financial System (The Economic Collapse)
• California, long a leader in public higher education, is now privatising it (Economist)
• Why technology start-ups won’t save us from recession (Guardian)
• A Horribly Unimpressive List of Products Yahoo Launched under Carol Bartz (Launch) see also My Plan as the New CEO of Yahoo: Video, Social and Mobile (Launch)
• The True Cost of 9/11 (Slate)

What are you reading?
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via Indexed


Please Germany, get this over with already

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 04:47 AM PDT

The fate of Greek bondholders will be determined by Germany in the next two weeks as they are the line in the sand in how to proceed next. Greece announced more tax hikes and public official wage cuts over the weekend but they are past the point of no return with their current capital structure. Merkel in a German newspaper wants to give Greece time but both her allies and opposition seem to have had enough and want an orderly bankruptcy for them. Greek debt continues to point to the latter as the 1 yr yield is now at 111.7% and 5 yr CDS up to 3500 bps. Fears of sharp mark downs and the expiration of Moody’s 3 month review period of them has French banks down sharply as a credit downgrade seems inevitable. Make no mistake though that the French will do all it can to plug any capital holes that their banks have. We know Germany is preparing for the same and we have to believe that every other European country is doing the same. Stress continues to increase in European interbank lending markets as measured by the euro basis swap and euribor/OIS spread. Italy’s lower house will vote on Wed on their new budget plan and it’s expected to pass. Italy sold 1 yr notes at a yield of 4.15%, 119 bps above one sold in Aug. Italian 5 yr CDS is now above 500 bps for the 1st time. Bottom line, pain is inevitable for Greece, its bondholders and European banks no matter what the outcome is for them but coming out on the other end of this situation with much lower debt levels, aka a default, would at least lay the foundation for economic recovery


The World’s Most Beautiful Waterfalls

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 04:30 AM PDT

Are these the world’s most beautiful waterfalls?

The photographs below, by Jack Brauer of WideRange.org (via the Daily Mail)  captures the stunning lagoons of Plitvice Lakes National Park in the Lika region of Croatia national park, with perfect waterfalls, beautifully lush jungle and stunning clear blue lagoons, looks “like a fantasy paradise island.”  The picturesque park has 16 stunning blue-green Plitvice Lakes, which are separated by natural dams of travertine limestone on the Plitvice plateau.

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Awe-inspiring: The spectacular park is made of 16 individual lakes

Turquoise treat: The blue lagoon at Plitvicka Jezera National Park


Thunder in the rain: The falls drop from awe-inspiring heights

Source:Are these the world’s most beautiful waterfalls?
Daily Mail, September 9 , 2011


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