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Yashi

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Fed hawks

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The Fed's Open Market Committee concluded its two-day June meeting yesterday with a moderately positive note: economic activity has rebounded from the terrible first quarter and labor market conditions seem to be improving, according to the statement. That said, because of said terrible first quarter, the outlook for U.S. economic growth is lower than it was at the last policy meeting in April: the Fed now expects the economy to grow 2.1-2.3%, compared to 2.8-3% previously.

Interest rates still remain unchanged, but Fed chair Janet Yellen cautioned the market not to be too confident that they will stay that way. "She noted there is a wide range of views even among Fed officials about where rates will be by 2016. Fed forecasts range between 0.5% and 4.25%," writes Jon Hilsenrath.

The taper continues, with the Fed reducing its monthly asset purchases by another $10 billion. It will now buy $15 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month and $20 billion in Treasuries. Though Yellen stressed the taper isn't on a set course, Pedro da Costa thinks it is. "The only real wiggle room for doubt at this point appears to be whether the Fed will go the full $15 billion in one last go or be more incremental." Jared Bernstein writes that while it may seem strange that the Fed both lowered its growth forecast and continued the taper, "I don't think $10 billion less in asset purchases will make much difference in the movements of the longer term rates they're targeting with this part of the program."

The FOMC also reduced its long-term target for the federal funds rate to 3.75% from 4%. In a video post, Cardiff Garcia says he thinks the lower federal funds rate means that the FOMC might be starting to buy in to the theory of secular stagnation. However, the median projections for the funds rate in the shorter term, 2015 and 2016, did go up a bit. Jim Sullivan at High Street Economics says that he thinks the Fed is "becoming at least a bit less dovish as unemployment continues to decline — even though the GDP projection for 2014 was cut." Tim Duy goes further, saying he thinks yesterday's press conference was actually Yellen showing her hawkish side. "Yellen and Co. are so committed to the 2% inflation target that they are willing to tolerate a persistently lower level of national output to maintain that target," he writes. — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Sovereign Debt Problems
There might be a way for Argentina to have its steak and eat it too - Adam Levitin

Literary
My Prestigious Literary Novel - Mallory Ortberg

Generation Debt
"Servicers of federally issued student loans should not exist" - David Dayen

Apropos of Nothing
America is becoming a country of nihilists - Aaron Blake

That's So Gross
There's something weird going on with Bill Gross - Rob Wile

 

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