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 Good morning. Here's what you need to know: 1. A top official at Standard & Poor's said yesterday that the ratings firm could move to downgrade U.S. government debt in the next two weeks if Congress hasn't raised the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. This warning comes despite the fact that the US Treasury says it doesn't risk missing payments to creditors until August 2nd. 2. The New York Times reports: "President Obama threw the deadlocked budget negotiations back to Congress on Thursday, telling Republicans and Democrats to try to work out an agreement to avert a government default, and suggesting that more ambitious efforts to cut the deficit had hit a wall." 3. The Wall Street Journal reports that Senator Mitch McConnell's "Plan B" for raising the debt ceiling is gaining momentum in the US Senate. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. McConnell (R-KY) are crafting the outlines of enabling legislation. 4. President Obama will hold yet another press conference today at 11 a.m. Eastern time. The president will address the status of the negotiations to cut the federal deficit and raise the debt ceiling. 5. National Journal columnist Ronald Brownstein argues that Republicans had an historic opportunity to at least constrain the growth of Federal entitlement spending. President Obama indicated that he was willing to enter into something like a "grand bargain." They blew it. 6. A new Gallup Poll shows President Obama trailing a "generic" Republican presidential candidate by a fairly substantial margin (47%-to-39%). The rule of thumb in presidential polling is that when the incumbent falls below 40% on a generic ballot, his or her prospects for re-election are grim. 7. Americans are deeply pessimistic about the future, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday. The number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track now stands at 63 percent. Another rule of thumb in presidential polling is that when the "wrong track" number is in the "60s," the incumbent's prospects for re-election are sharply diminished. 8. Peggy Noonan argues that one reason people are so pessimistic about the future is that the "culture" (broadly defined) today is so assaultive and so unhinged. 9. Today is European banks' "stress test" day! The Financial Times reports: "The publication of European banks’ stress test results today could lead to a wave of distressed debt deals, according to investment bankers and restructuring experts. The results of the stress tests – due at 5pm UK time – are expected to see about 10 of the 91 banks tested fall short of having the required 5 per cent core tier one capital, including a clutch of four smaller Spanish savings banks and as many as three Greek banks." 10. The popular uprising against the Assad regime in Syria is gaining more momentum. The Assad regime is gearing up to crush it. The uprising is now in its fifth month. 11. There's a Rick Perry for President campaign being built. It just needs a candidate. The Texas governor remains undecided about entering the race, an advisor says. We assess Mr. Perry's campaign prospects here. 12. Former House Speaker Sam Rayburn (D-TX) divided members of Congress into two parts: work horses and show horses. Rep. Michele Bachmann is, using the Rayburn model, a classic show horse. 13. Minnesota’s two-week-old government shutdown will soon end. Gov. Mark Dayton (D) and Republican legislative leaders agreed to a deal for closing the state’s $5 billion budget gap without a tax increase. Please follow Politics on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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