AAPL Recovering From Last Week
Stocks are on the rise Monday after the leaders of France and Germany agreed to strengthen Europe's banks to help them better weather the region's debt crisis. Shares of AAPL are up strong in early trading after losing significant market cap last week on the loss of Steve Jobs as well as weak order rumors (see below). Catalysts include
fiscal fourth quarter earnings release on Tuesday, October 18 at 5:00 pm ET; upgrade cycle and conversion to the iPhone 4S and response to the free iPhone 3GS; update to the
iPad; continued growth of the Mac business line; mobile adoption in China and emerging markets;
iCloud / iOS 5 rollout and adoption; the continued evolution of
Apple TV; and platforms such as mobile advertising (iAd), books / publishing and social (
Ping). Shares of
Apple trade at
9.5x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities).
"Apple Shock" Reconstructs The Technology Industry (Digitimes Research)What has Apple done to the tech industry? It's called “Apple Shock.” And according to Joanne Chien, senior analyst at Digitimes Research this effect “has expanded along with the global economic downturn, sending waves across the PC industry causing a reconstruction in all areas from market scale, brand operation and supply chain structure.” Apple Shock has three major affects:
And that's just the business side, how Apple has reshaped the consumer landscape is a whole other beast.
Read » Are iPhone Orders Weak Because Of The Economy? (Digitimes)There's another report of weakness from Apple's Asia suppliers, this time pertaining to the iPhone. PCB "suppliers to Apple were informed that orders for the fourth quarter have been revised downward because of the sluggish U.S. and Europe economies."
It doesn't mean Apple will post disappointing iPhone sales in the fourth quarter. Apple's orders, based on its own internal expectations, may have been much higher than external analysts have been expecting. So it could cut these orders without disappointing anyone. But still, it's hard to view this as good news.
Read » iPhone 4S The Most Successful Launch Ever With 1 Million Single Day Orders (Various via techDygest) After
AT&T announced that demand for Apple's newest smartphone has been overwhelming, with the company having
already processed over 200,000 preorders in the first 12 hours alone, Apple has announced that it is in fact the most successful iPhone launch ever with 1 million orders in the first day. That storms past the company’s previous sales record of 600,000 iPhone 4 buyers in a single day.
Verizon is currently showing at least a one-week delivery delay and
Sprint has already run through its pre-order stock.
Read » Will Siri Come To The iPad Anytime Soon (TUAW) Siri served as an iOS app (called Siri Assistant) before it became a full, integrated feature in the upcoming iPhone 4S. Since the iPhone 4S features the same A5 processor as the iPad 2, is it possible that Siri might be offered on the tablet? Here's what's probable: Siri will remain an iPhone 4S exclusive at least until the third tier of international roll-outs completes in December. Apple will probably wait until after the end of the holiday quarter and bring Siri to the iPad giving incentive for people to buy the iPhone 4S.
Read » The Board Struggles With Dawn Of A New Era (Reuters)The passing of
Steve Jobs has put a spotlight on Apple's board of directors. The current board features former U.S. vice president Al Gore, Genentech Chairman Arthur D. Levinson and Avon CEO Andrea Jung. Just seven people, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, serve on the board. One wonders whether the company will expand and diversify the board to bring about a new era. Adding a strong chairman could create a healthy tension between that person and Cook.
Read » There Is No Next Steve Jobs... Stop The Insanity (Howard Lindzon) In 6 months to a year we will know what the Steve Jobs premium was. Based on the limited trading, it feels like 30% of the market cap. That doesn't mean that AAPL has 30% immediate downside, but the stock would have been trading between $600 and $800 with a completely healthy Steve Jobs. It is now just an amazing growth stock and let’s see who steps up. The market is watching as close as it has ever watched any one stock. But let's get real about one thing: There is no next Steve Jobs. This was once in many lifetimes.
Read » Daily Trader: Investors Are All Over The Map When It Comes To Apple (Seeking Alpha)Take your pick:
- Apple Stock Is Undervalued: Apple's stock has come under pressure as of late. Yet it represents one of the most compelling valuation plays on the market based on discounted cash flow (DCF). Read »
- Apple Is A Short: But the next successor (Jobs II) proves him or herself at Apple, the company is destined to lose its premium and gradually fade into the crowd of also-run technology companies. Read »
- Apple Is A Safe Haven: Apple is aggressively going after the mid to low tier of the smart phone market. Therefore the stock looks like one of the safer technology plays as the iPhone 4S becomes the newest game changing product. Read »
From a macro perspective, with China about to fall into recession and Europe not far behind (or vice versa), who really knows. It's probably a safer bet than most.
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