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Saturday, November 26, 2011

The Big Picture

The Big Picture

Link to The Big Picture

Tablet Wars

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 01:30 PM PST

Amazing, Unusual Musical Performances

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 10:30 AM PST

Playing trumpet on a rubberband:

Playing a “hang” drum:

Playing guitar with their feet:


Residency Immobility in the United States

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 09:30 AM PST

click for ginormous chart

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Fascinating discussion by in Richard Florida at the Atlantic, looking at how people are unable to move due to economic circumstances and real estate. It is quite telling . . .

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Source:
The Geography of Stuck
Richard Florida
The Atlantic, Nov 25, 2011
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/housing/2011/11/geography-stuck/534/


The Rap Board

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 07:38 AM PST

I loved the Beastie Boys’ Paul’s Boutique, but I am hardly up to date with the most recent “Ughs” and “Yo’s” of the hip hop world

Thankfully, you can keep up to date with the new Rap Board:

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click for full run of rap sounds


Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 06:00 AM PST

Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, November 19

~~~

It's fair to say that our discussion about the big lie touched a nerve.

The big lie of the financial crisis, of course, is that troubling technique used to try to change the narrative history and shift blame from the bad ideas and terrible policies that created it.

Based on the scores of comments, people are clearly interested in understanding the causes of the economic disaster.

I want to move beyond what I call "the squishy narrative" — an imprecise, sloppy way to think about the world — toward a more rigorous form of analysis. Unlike other disciplines, economics looks at actual consequences in terms of real dollars. So let's follow the money and see what the data reveal about the causes of the collapse.

Rather than attend a college-level seminar on the complex philosophy of causation, we'll keep it simple. To assess how blameworthy any factor is regarding the cause of a subsequent event, consider whether that element was 1) proximate 2) statistically valid 3) necessary and sufficient.

Consider the causes cited by those who've taken up the big lie. Take for example New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's statement that it was Congress that forced banks to make ill-advised loans to people who could not afford them and defaulted in large numbers. He and others claim that caused the crisis. Others have suggested these were to blame: the home mortgage interest deduction, the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, the 1994 Housing and Urban Development memo, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and homeownership targets set by both the Clinton and Bush administrations.

When an economy booms or busts, money gets misspent, assets rise in prices, fortunes are made. Out of all that comes a set of easy-to-discern facts.

Here are key things we know based on data. Together, they present a series of tough hurdles for the big lie proponents.

•The boom and bust was global. Proponents of the Big Lie ignore the worldwide nature of the housing boom and bust.

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The housing boom and bust was global — Source: McKinsey Quarterly
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A McKinsey Global Institute report noted "from 2000 through 2007, a remarkable run-up in global home prices occurred." It is highly unlikely that a simultaneous boom and bust everywhere else in the world was caused by one set of factors (ultra-low rates, securitized AAA-rated subprime, derivatives) but had a different set of causes in the United States. Indeed, this might be the biggest obstacle to pushing the false narrative. How did U.S. regulations against redlining in inner cities also cause a boom in Spain, Ireland and Australia? How can we explain the boom occurring in countries that do not have a tax deduction for mortgage interest or government-sponsored enterprises? And why, after nearly a century of mortgage interest deduction in the United States, did it suddenly cause a crisis?

These questions show why proximity and statistical validity are so important. Let's get more specific.The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 is a favorite boogeyman for some, despite the numbers that so easily disprove it as a cause.It is a statistical invalid argument, as the data show.

For example, if the CRA was to blame, the housing boom would have been in CRA regions; it would have made places such as Harlem and South Philly and Compton and inner Washington the primary locales of the run up and collapse. Further, the default rates in these areas should have been worse than other regions.

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CRA were less likely to default than Subprime Mortgages — Source: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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What occurred was the exact opposite: The suburbs boomed and busted and went into foreclosure in much greater numbers than inner cities. The tiny suburbs and exurbs of South Florida and California and Las Vegas and Arizona were the big boomtowns, not the low-income regions. The redlined areas the CRA address missed much of the boom; places that busted had nothing to do with the CRA.

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Suburbs and Exurbs were where the boom & bust occurred — and not the CRA regions — Source: Washington Post
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The market share of financial institutions that were subject to the CRA has steadily declined since the legislation was passed in 1977. As noted by Abromowitz & Min, CRA-regulated institutions, primarily banks and thrifts, accounted for only 28 percent of all mortgages originated in 2006.

•Nonbank mortgage underwriting exploded from 2001 to 2007, along with the private label securitization market, which eclipsed Fannie and Freddie during the boom.

Check the mortgage origination data: The vast majority of subprime mortgages — the loans at the heart of the global crisis — were underwritten by unregulated private firms. These were lenders who sold the bulk of their mortgages to Wall Street, not to Fannie or Freddie. Indeed, these firms had no deposits, so they were not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp or the Office of Thrift Supervision. The relative market share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped from a high of 57 percent of all new mortgage originations in 2003, down to 37 percent as the bubble was developing in 2005-06.

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Nonbank mortgage underwriting exploded from 2001 to 2007, along with the private label securitization market, which eclipsed Fannie and Freddie during the boom – Source: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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•Private lenders not subject to congressional regulations collapsed lending standards. Taking up that extra share were nonbanks selling mortgages elsewhere, not to the GSEs. Conforming mortgages had rules that were less profitable than the newfangled loans. Private securitizers — competitors of Fannie and Freddie — grew from 10 percent of the market in 2002 to nearly 40 percent in 2006. As a percentage of all mortgage-backed securities, private securitization grew from 23 percent in 2003 to 56 percent in 2006

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Subprime Lenders were (Primarily) Private

Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing laws overseen by either Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the Community Reinvestment Act — Source: McClatchy
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These firms had business models that could be called "Lend-in-order-to-sell-to-Wall-Street-securitizers." They offered all manner of nontraditional mortgages — the 2/28 adjustable rate mortgages, piggy-back loans, negative amortization loans. These defaulted in huge numbers, far more than the regulated mortgage writers did.

Consider a study by McClatchy: It found that more than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending. These private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year. And McClatchy found that out of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006, only one was subject to the usual mortgage laws and regulations.

A 2008 analysis found that the nonbank underwriters made more than 12 million subprime mortgages with a value of nearly $2 trillion. The lenders who made these were exempt from federal regulations.

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cra-chartg1109
Lenders made 12 million subprime mortgages with a value of nearly $2 trillion. Mortgage Companies and Thrifts NOT affiliated with CRA made 75% of Subprime Loans from 2004-07, Source: Orange County Register
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A study by the Federal Reserve shows that more than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions. The study found that the government-sponsored enterprises were concerned with the loss of market share to these private lenders — Fannie and Freddie were chasing profits, not trying to meet low-income lending goals.

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Fannie and Freddie risky loan purchases was dwarfed by Private Label Securitization Source: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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Beyond the overwhelming data that private lenders made the bulk of the subprime loans to low-income borrowers, we still have the proximate cause issue. If we cannot blame housing policies from the 1930s or mortgage tax deductibility from even before that, then what else can we blame? Mass consumerism? Incessant advertising? The post-World War II suburban automobile culture? MTV's "Cribs"? Just how attenuated must a factor be before fair-minded people are willing to eliminate it as a prime cause?

I recognize all of the above as merely background noise, the wallpaper of our culture. To blame the housing collapse that began in 2006, a recession dated to December 2007 and a market collapse in 2008-09 on policies of the early 20th century is to blame everything — and nothing.

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Ritholtz is chief executive of FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He is the author of "Bailout Nation" and runs a finance blog, the Big Picture.


Changing the Rules in the Middle of the Game

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 05:30 AM PST

Changing the Rules in the Middle of the Game
By John Mauldin
November 25, 2011

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Changing the Rules
When Even Germany Fails
European Inverted Yield Curves
Time to Review the Bang!Moment
The Risk of Contagion in the US
Time to Start Watching China
New York, China, and Some Links


Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? The market action suggests that time is indeed running out, and so we'll look at the likely consequences. Then I glance over the other way and take notice of news out of China that may be of import. Plus a few links for your weekend listening "pleasure." There is lots to cover, so let's get started.

Changing the Rules

I have been writing for a very long time about the changes needed to the EU treaty if Europe is to survive. Specifically, last week I noted that Angela Merkel has made it clear that the independence of the ECB must not be compromised. This week Sarkozy and the new prime minister of Italy, Mario Monti, agreed to stop their public calls for such changes (at least until their own crises get even worse, would be my guess). And Merkel has called for a new, stronger union with strict control of budgets as the price for further German aid for those countries in crisis. In seeming response:

"The European Commission on November 23 proposed a new package including budget previews at EU level, the establishment of independent fiscal councils and growth forecasts, closer surveillance of bailout recipients and a consultation paper on Eurobonds. There is also a growing consensus among EU policy makers on the need for the adoption of fiscal rules in national legislation. However, it is far from clear whether EU countries would accept the implicit loss of sovereignty this would involve and agree to treaty changes enshrining legally enforceable fiscal oversight at EU level. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, is willing to support a change in Germany's own constitution if the EU Treaty change to that effect is agreed first." (www.roubini.com)

But this means a major treaty change that must be approved by all member countries. Note that Merkel wants the treaty change first, or at least the language, before she takes it to German voters, which will certainly be required, since what she is suggesting is not allowed by the present German constitution. Without the changes stated clearly and explicitly in advance, it is unlikely, as I read the polls, that German voters will go along. Merkel has made it clear that any proposed changes will be limited to fiscal issues and central control and not touch on the ECB's independence. She is adamant against eurozone bonds and putting the German balance sheet at risk (see more below).

But will the rest of Europe go along with what would be a major alterations of their own individual sovereignty and their ability to adjust their own budgets, no matter what? And agree to all this in time to deal with the current crisis? Such changes will be controversial, to say the least. And they would require, if I understand, the yes votes of all 27 European Union members, or at a minimum the 17 eurozone members.

That is problematical. Will even German voters give up their independence and listen to an EU commission tell them what they can and cannot do with their own budget? A budget that is in theory controlled by the rest of Europe? The answer depends on whom you listen to last, as the answers range all over the board.

When Even Germany Fails

Let's get back to the German balance sheet. This week the markets were greeted with a failed German bond offering. The German central bank had to step in and buy German bunds, at a recent-series-high rate. And while the "trade" has been to buy German bunds as a hedge, Germany is not precisely a model of balance and austerity, with high (above 4%) deficits and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio. And the market senses the contradictions here. When even German bond auctions fail, whither the rest of Europe?

As a quick aside, notice that German yields are not higher than those of UK debt at some points. The market is clearly signaling that the lack of a national central bank with a printing press is an issue. Go figure. But that is a story for another letter at another time.

Let's look at some recent headlines. Greek 2-year bonds are now at 116%. You read that right. "Bond yields on short-term Italian debt rose above 8 per cent on Friday as Rome was forced to pay euro-era-high interest rates in what analysts called an 'awful' auction. A peak of 8.13 per cent was reached on three-year bonds, according to Reuters data, as Italian debt traded deeper into territory associated with bail-outs of Greece, Portugal and Ireland in the past 18 months.

"Italy raised its targeted €10bn in an auction of two-year bonds and six-month bills but at sharply higher yields. 'Rates have skyrocketed. It's simply not sustainable in the long run,' said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities in London.

"Investors demanded a yield of 7.81 per cent for the two-year bond, up from 4.63 per cent last month. The six-month bills saw yields of 6.50 per cent, up from 3.54 per cent. That was significantly higher than Greece paid for six-month money earlier this month when it issued bills at 4.89 per cent." (Reuters)

Spanish bond yields are slightly lower but not by much, with both countries paying more for short-term debt than Greece.

And no one is really talking about Belgium, which I have been pointing to for some time. Belgium debt yield on its ten-year bonds went to 5.85%. Notice the recent trend, in the chart below. It looks like Greece in the not-very-distant past. (Chart courtesy of Roubini.com and Reuters data)

European Inverted Yield Curves

Let's rewind the tape a little bit. Both the Spanish and Italian bond markets are close to or already in an "inverted" state. That is when lower-term bonds yield higher than longer-term bonds, which is not a natural occurrence. Typically, when that happens, the markets are sending a signal of something. (Charts below courtesy of my long-suffering Endgame co-author, Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, who lets me call him up late for data like this.)

Note that Greece (especially) and Portugal inverted when they began to enter a crisis. And shortly thereafter they went into freefall. Why did it happen so suddenly?

The short explanation is that once the market perceives there is risk, the debt in question has to collapse to the point where risk takers will step in. Do you remember two summers ago, when I related what I thought was a remarkable conversation with two French bond traders in a bistro in Paris after the markets had closed? Greece was all the news. It was all Greece, all the time. And I asked them what their favorite trade was (as I like to do with all traders). The surprising answer (to me) was they were buying short-term Greek bonds. They walked me through the logic. I forget the yields, but they were sky-high. They figured they had at least a year and maybe two before the bonds defaulted, plenty of time to get a lot of yield and exit. And there were hedges.

Italian and Spanish yields are approaching that "bang!" moment. The only thing stopping them is the threat of the ECB stepping in and buying in real size. Which Merkel is against. And the market is starting to believe her, hence the move in yields.

Time to Review the Bang! Moment

One of the most important sections of Endgame is in a chapter where I review (and compare with other research) the book This Time is Different by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, and include part of an interview I did with them. This chapter was one of real economic epiphanies for me. Their data confirms other research about how things seemingly bounce along, and then the end comes seemingly all at once. Which we'll term the bang! moment. Let's review a few paragraphs from the book, starting with quotes from the interview I did:

"KENNETH ROGOFF: It's external debt that you owe to foreigners that is particularly an issue. Where the private debt so often, especially for emerging markets, but it could well happen in Europe today, where a lot of the private debt ends up getting assumed by the government and you say, but the government doesn't guarantee private debts, well no they don't. We didn't guarantee all the financial debt either before it happened, yet we do see that. I remember when I was first working on the 1980' Latin Debt Crisis and piecing together the data there on what was happening to public debt and what was happening to private debt, and I said, gosh the private debt is just shrinking and shrinking, isn't that interesting. Then I found out that it was being "guaranteed" by the public sector, who were in fact assuming the debts to make it easier to default on."

Now from Endgame:

"If there is one common theme to the vast range of crises we consider in this book, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether it be by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom. Infusions of cash can make a government look like it is providing greater growth to its economy than it really is.

"Private sector borrowing binges can inflate housing and stock prices far beyond their long-run sustainable levels, and make banks seem more stable and profitable than they really are. Such large-scale debt buildups pose risks because they make an economy vulnerable to crises of confidence, particularly when debt is short-term and needs to be constantly refinanced. Debt-fueled booms all too often provide false affirmation of a government's policies, a financial institution's ability to make outsized profits, or a country's standard of living. Most of these booms end badly. Of course, debt instruments are crucial to all economies, ancient and modern, but balancing the risk and opportunities of debt is always a challenge, a challenge policy makers, investors, and ordinary citizens must never forget."

And the following is key. Read it twice (at least!):

"Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence—especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over continuously—is the key factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang!—confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.

"Economic theory tells us that it is precisely the fickle nature of confidence, including its dependence on the public's expectation of future events, which makes it so difficult to predict the timing of debt crises. High debt levels lead, in many mathematical economics models, to "multiple equilibria" in which the debt level might be sustained —or might not be. Economists do not have a terribly good idea of what kinds of events shift confidence and of how to concretely assess confidence vulnerability. What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite."

"How confident was the world in October of 2006? John was writing that there would be a recession, a subprime crisis, and a credit crisis in our future. He was on Larry Kudlow's show with Nouriel Roubini, and Larry and John Rutledge were giving him a hard time about his so-called 'doom and gloom.' 'If there is going to be a recession you should get out of the stock market,' was John's call. He was a tad early, as the market proceeded to go up another 20% over the next 8 months. And then the crash came."

But that's the point. There is no way to determine when the crisis comes.

As Reinhart and Rogoff wrote:

"Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang!—confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits."

Bang! is the right word. It is the nature of human beings to assume that the current trend will work itself out, that things can't really be that bad. The trend is your friend … until it ends. Look at the bond markets only a year and then just a few months before World War I. There was no sign of an impending war. Everyone "knew" that cooler heads would prevail.

We can look back now and see where we have made mistakes in the current crisis. We actually believed that this time was different, that we had better financial instruments, smarter regulators, and were so, well, modern. Times were different. We knew how to deal with leverage. Borrowing against your home was a good thing. Housing values would always go up. Etc.

Until they didn't, and then it was too late. What were we thinking? Of course, we were thinking in accordance with our oh-so-human natures. It is all so predictable, except for the exact moment when the crisis hits. (And during the run-up we get all those wonderful quotes from market actors, which then come back to haunt them.)

If it was just Europe and if the crisis could be contained there, then maybe we could focus on something else for a change. But Europe as a whole is critical to the world's economy. A huge percentage of global lending is from euro-area banks, and they are all contracting their balance sheets. In a banking balance-sheet crisis, you reduce the debt you can, not the debt that is the most needed or reliable. And some of the debt will be to foreign entities. As an example, Austria is now requiring its banks to cover their Eastern European loans with local deposits. Which is of course problematical, as the size of those loans relative to the bank balance sheets and the Austrian economy is huge. According to BIS statistics, Austrian banks' total exposure to the region equates to around 67% of the country's GDP, not including the Vienna-based Bank Austria, which is technically Italian.

We could find similar results for other European (mostly Spanish), as well as Latin American banks. And as I note below, this will reach into China and throughout Asia.

The Risk of Contagion in the US

And the US? I am constantly asked what my biggest worry is. What is the largest monster I think I hear in my closet of nightmares? And the answer has been the same for a long time: it is European banks.

Those who think this is all a non-event note (correctly) that US net exposure to European banks is not all that large, and that while it may not be a non-event, it's not system-threatening. The problem is that little three-letter word net.

Gross exposure is huge, and we are starting to read that regulators and other authorities are becoming concerned. As well they should. The problem is that as a bank sells risk insurance, it can buy protection from another bank in Europe to hedge it. But who is the counterparty? How solvent are they? It was only a month before Dexia collapsed that authorities and markets assured us that the bank was fine, and then bang! it was nationalized.

That is the part we do not know enough about. If European banks are as bad as they appear to be, then that counterparty risk is large. Will sovereign nations step up and bail out US banks on the credit default swaps their banks sold? Care to wager your national economy on that concept selling in today's political climate?

Contagion is the #1 risk on the minds of European leaders and regulatory authorities, and it should be in the US, too. This points to a massive failure in Dodd-Frank to regulate credit default swaps and put them on an exchange. This is the single largest error in the last few decades, as it was so predictable. At least with the repeal of Glass-Steagall it was the unintended consequences that got us. Dodd- Frank almost guarantees another credit and banking crisis. Don't get me started.

Since the ECB is for now off the table as a source of unlimited funds (remember I said "for now"), there are calls for funds from a variety of sources. Some new supranational fund, more EFSF "donations," etc. The only semi-realistic one is IMF participation. If that is seriously considered, then the US Congress should step in and protest. US funds should not be used for governments of the size of Italy and Spain. These are not third-world countries. This is a European issue of their own making and not the responsibility of US taxpayers, or for that matter taxpayers anywhere else. We should "just say no."

As I have been writing, there is no credible source other than the ECB for the amount of funds needed. Maybe something can be cobbled together under the pressure of a crisis, but for now there is no realistic option. Europe is at the end of the road unless Germany "blinks." The only thing we can do now is to see how it works out.

If the ECB can't print, then the rules have to be changed, if the eurozone is to survive. And while a recession is underway.

"Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipper by volume, plans to cut its capacity on Asia-to-Europe routes, a senior executive said Friday, as the euro-zone debt crisis weighs on international trade.

"Almost all carriers are losing money now … and it looks like 2012 will going to be similarly challenging," Tim Smith, the company’s North Asia chief, told reporters at a shipping conference."

Time is not on the Europeans' side. Let's hope they can figure it out, but prepare for what might happen if they don't.

Time to Start Watching China

I am going to begin devoting more time to analysis of Asia in general and China in particular. There are signs of problems developing, and they demand study. Here is just one note (of a dozen) that came across my desk in the last two days. This is from Andy Lees of UBS:

"We saw today that 80% of Chinese construction firms say developers are now behind on payments (late cash flow), and that consequently land purchases are already 42% down y/y (slowing local authority cash flow). We also heard that pricing controls means that utility companies no longer have the cash flow to afford vital imports. Q3 corporate cash flow was down 27%.

"China’s trade surplus is annualizing this year at USD152bn, FDI [Foreign Direct Investing] @ USD114bn yet its FX reserve increase is USD472bn. The attached chart [below] shows Chinese external borrowings which unfortunately were last updated at the end of last year, but the data would infer these have continued to soar.

"I am being told that European banks are now starting to shrink their foreign loan books to meet domestic needs, with Mexico, Brazil and China all big losers. With China now saying they may run a full-year trade deficit next year, and with them unable to afford to import vital coal and other resources without either suffering domestic inflation or without selling its FX reserves, it may now well be time to consider some sort of puts on the yuan. In fact the only reason perhaps not to is that India may collapse first, reducing the competition for coal and giving China a little more breathing room.

China is not a problem in the short term. But there have to be adjustments to keep that status of "not a problem." The situation bears watching and becoming familiar with, as I am on the record that Japan is the next in line to suffer a real world-shaking crisis. And China, which does not adjust in advance, can suffer contagion effects from Japan. The world is so connected.

My plan now, in addition to reading more is to tap some very good sources who either live in or travel to China a lot. And I will visit China for at least two weeks next summer, depending on publishing schedules. Europe is getting so old hat, and the crisis there will resolve, one way or another. Let's focus on a different set of opportunities.

New York, China, and Some Links

Last week I had the privilege of meeting Ken Rogoff at the UBS Wealth Management Conference. He graciously allowed me to take a picture with him. I got to listen to a panel with him; Ottmar Issing, noted German former central banker); and Jim O'Neil, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management; along with Alan Greenspan. Your basic $400,000 panel, assuming O'Neil was free. Only Greenspan spoke separately (and gave a very short speech). I could have listened to all of them a lot longer.

There was remarkable convergence with the panel I was on, except that I am under no pressure to be politically correct, or simply do not recognize that I should be. Everyone was concerned about Europe. I was not seen as alarmist by any fair comparison.

It was also good to have lunch with Art Cashin and finally hear him speak. He got two standing ovations, both of which he deserved. Not many know his pivotal role at the NYSE or have his level of experience and trust. He is a true legend. And if luck and schedule hold, I get to be with him for dinner Monday night, along with Barry Ritholtz, Barry Habib, Michael Lewitt, Rich Yamarone (of Bloomberg), and maybe Dennis Gartman, as well as Tiffani. What a treat.

Then it's back home the next morning to be here until January 10, when I fly to Hong Kong and Singapore.

Let me commend to you an interview the BBC did with my friend Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors, which is the opening story in the current best-selling book by Michael Lewis, Boomerang! You can listen to it at http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-un-edited-buying-gold-just-buying-put-against-idiocy-political-cycle-its-simple. It is 24 minutes, and the video does not seem exactly synced, so just listen to someone who is always thinking about what lies ahead and has done a good job of it so far. And think with him. And kudos to Kyle for handling a very hostile interview so well. He has more patience than I do.

I was at the Cleveland Clinic on Monday and saw eight doctors for a general check-up and some real focus on my arm. Turns out to be a torn rotator cuff and also tennis elbow. They are not related, and no surgery needed, but there is rehab.

And then I heard from Richard Russell. Let me belatedly wish Richard an even faster recovery than I enjoy. He broke his hip and is graciously sharing his rehab with readers, as he has shared his life over the years. He wrote yesterday, "I heard rehab for a broken hip was hard. That’s a false statement. It’s harder than hard. You have to build the strength in your good leg and both of your arms, to a point beyond your wildest fantasies. In other words, three of your limbs have to make up for the loss in strength in the leg that you can’t use."

Makes me think "What arm pain?" I am embarrassed to even mention it. Richard, as in everything, continues to be my hero.

It is time to hit the send button. I fly to NYC Sunday morning to meet with Bill Dunkelberg, and we will spend a long afternoon detailing our book on jobs and employment. Then Tiffani comes in for dinner and we have meetings all day Monday for our business. So much is happening. Have a great week and enjoy the season. Figure out how to spend more time with family and friends. I know I need to.

Your just stopping here before it becomes another book analyst,

John Mauldin

John@FrontlineThoughts.com


Address Is Approximate

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 05:15 AM PST

Google Street View stop motion animation short made as a personal project by director Tom Jenkins.

Story: A lonely desk toy longs for escape from the dark confines of the office, so he takes a cross country road trip to the Pacific Coast in the only way he can – using a toy car and Google Maps Street View.

Address Is Approximate from The Theory on Vimeo.

Music by the wonderfull Cinematic Orchestra (cinematicorchestra.com) and the track is Arrival of the Birds – please buy the fantastic album: itunes.apple.com/gb/album/the-crimson-wing-mystery-flamingos/id297787201

All screen imagery was animated – there are no screen replacements.

Produced, animated, filmed, lit, edited & graded by Tom Jenkins (theoryfilms.co.uk / facebook.com/theoryfilms – !NEW MAKING OF PICS ON FB PAGE! / @thetheoryUK / twitter.com/#!/thetheoryUK).

Shot using Canon 5d MkII, Dragonframe Stop Motion software and customised slider.


Lamborghini LP 550-2 Spyder Unveiled

Posted: 26 Nov 2011 04:30 AM PST

The Gallardo LP 550-2 Spyder, as its name implies, is a convertible that features a 550HP V10 that, unlike the standard Gallardo, directs all its power to the rear wheels. Top speed is 199mph with 0-60mph runs of 4 seconds flat.

http://germancarscene.com/wp-content/uploads/9_550_spyd_11.jpg

Source: Lamborghini LP 550-2 Spyder Unveiled In L.A.
Classic Driver, November 19, 2011


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