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Yashi

Monday, March 24, 2014

Crimea punishment

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Last Thursday, after Russia voted to annex Crimea, the US announced another round of economic sanctions against Russian officials. The new list includes twenty people and Bank Rossiya, in addition to the eleven already sanctioned earlier last week. On Thursday, Russia responded by putting out its own list of banned American politicians, including Senators John McCain and Harry Reid.

The Economist writes that sanctions by Russia against individuals in the West are likely to have little effect — McCain joked that he'll have to cancel his spring break trip to Siberia — but that the American sanctions against Russians could hurt more. Being banned from the US financial system is a de facto ban from most of the global banking system:

Even those people who do not have any assets in America to freeze often find it difficult to obtain financial services elsewhere. They will, for example, be unable to carry out any transactions using dollars. Western banks, mindful of recent government probes of HSBC and Standard Chartered for breaking similar embargoes, will not want to go near them.

Bloomberg reports that the already fragile Russian economy is now more likely to dip into recession. The Russian stock market is down 13% and the ruble has lost 8.4% against the dollar since last November, when the protests in Ukraine started. Romanian government official Mircea Geoana told Bloomberg that "the ones who'll pay the bill for this aggression, no matter how popular and patriotic it looks, will be the Russian people". Moscow-based investment advisor Chris Weafer warns that the biggest impact from the Ukraine crisis "may be to radically slow the inflow of much needed investment capital" to Russia..

Even if the sanctions hurt economically, it's unclear if they will alter Russia's foreign policy. Economist Gary Hufbauer tells Planet Money that in the 20th century, sanctions achieved their goal only about 30% of the time, and generally only work when large economies use them against very small economies. (Iran is a recent counterexample.)

Anne-Marie Slaughter says it's not sanctions that won't work, but American sanctions. She suggests the EU should be the ones leading the push against Russia. First, because Russia's largest trading partners, after China, are EU countries. Also, "the EU does not remind Russians daily of their post-Soviet losses and humiliation on the global stage in the same way that the US does". Then again, EU sanctions have their problems, too. The US is not dependent on Russian energy the way Europe is. -- Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Bubbly
Germany's concrete gold rush - Joe Weisenthal

Data Points
36% of web traffic is fake  – and it's worth $18 billion - WSJ

Ugh
Over 30 and washed up: Silicon Valley's brutal ageism - Noam Schieber

Housing
Tax subsidies don't increase homeownership – they make Americans buy bigger homes - WSJ

Billionaire Whimsy
David Einhorn knows the identity of pseudonymous blogger, isn't telling - BI
Trish Regan, Einhorn apologist - Felix

Easing Ain't Easy
The Fed keeps missing its inflation target - WSJ
Why we think inflation is high when it's actually really low - Guardian

Study Says
Academics are too interested in publishing newsworthy studies, according to the authors of a newsworthy - Motherload
The unemployed are happier once they retire, because they feel less inadequate - The Economic Journal

Fiscally Speaking
77% of deficit reductions since 2008 have come from spending cuts - Jared Bernstein

Bitcoin
Another Bitcoin exchange freezes withdrawals - Gigaom

Right On
A startup that's a "business... not a religious experience, a revolution, or a disruption" - Valleywag

Quotable
"Racism bad. Eat kale." - NY Mag

Investigations
Wage theft in Silicon Valley: dozens of companies conspired to keep down workers' pay - Mark Ames

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