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Yashi

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Who's afraid of rising prices?

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Minneapolis Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota — the only FOMC member to vote against the taper last month — said in a speech in Buffalo today that inflation is likely to stay under the Fed's 2% target for another four years. Further, he said, that fact "tells us that resources are being wasted" because "demand for goods and services is too low to fully use the available resources in society".

Paul Krugman agrees that inflation is too low, and blames bad policy for keeping it that way. The problem, he says, is that the very wealthy, who have more assets than income, have a lot of influence over policy decisions. "Modestly higher inflation, say 4%, would be good for the vast majority of people, but it would be bad for the superelite", he writes.

Brad DeLong disagrees with Krugman's premise, arguing that the wealthy misunderstand how inflation in a post-2008 economy would affect them. He says that what the rich have gained from low interest rates is less than what they have lost in lower profits due to a depressed economy —even after accounting for the fact that they can get away with paying lower wages as a result.

Tyler Cowen thinks Krugman is totally off-base, and that labor is the real loser in a high inflation environment. The rich, he says, "have the greatest ability to hedge against inflation using derivatives and commodities, if they do desire". Meanwhile, "the middle class in protected service sector jobs is more vulnerable than is usually recognized".

Cowen links to an old Ezra Klein post explaining why Americans hate inflation so much. It's partially because we're bad at detecting how much inflation there really is (more about more recent research on that here). But Klein thinks it comes from America's inflation problem in the 1970s: "people tend to remember problems they had previously", he says.

Joe Weisenthal's theory is similar, though more Freudian. Old men (like, say, policymakers) are worried about inflation because it takes them back to the last time it was a real problem — when they were 35 years younger. "Worrying about inflation is like buying a Lamborghini or marrying a young wife. It makes them feel good and young again". – Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Legitimately Good News
Greece's astonishing financial rebound - Hugo Dixon

Everyone Freak Out!
"Tech stocks have become a little bit more modestly priced" - Dan McCrum

Regulations
The Fed decides to give banks a few extra years to comply fully with the Volcker Rule - WSJ
SEC lawyer uses his retirement party to say what everyone suspected: the agency isn't a tough regulator - Bloomberg

Primary Sources
"What an amazing car! How can you afford this?" The investor responds, "My Virtual Concierge" - SEC
Job openings rise in February; hires and separations are unchanged - BLS
The quits rate for accommodation and food services hits October 2008 levels - FRED

Jobs
Is the temp economy permanent? No one is quite sure - Jim Pethokoukis
1 out of 10 jobs created since 2009 have been temporary - WSJ

Wonks
The portion of income families spend on food has fallen. Why hasn't the poverty line risen? - Cathy O'Neil
The shortish guide to Capital in the 21st Century - Matt Yglesias
"We don't have proof that austerity works. It's dangerous for policy-makers to pretend otherwise" - Royal Economic Society

Oxpeckers
"Isn't the Times supposed to be the deluxe version of the Times in the first place?" - Jack Shafer

Financial Arcana
Citi was counting on a share buyback to boost return-on-tangible-equity - WSJ

Awful But Informative
Barbara Corcoran fires 25% of her sales force every year - LinkedIn

Profiles
Monograms and a $15 minimum wage: a former JP Morgan banker runs for office - Max Abelson

Data Points
The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company is just 18 years - HBR

Servicey
Twitter is pretty good at predicting initial unemployment claims - Wonkblog

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