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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

There's One Chart Responsible For The Tectonic Shift In Global Markets

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Wednesday, June 12, 2013
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There's One Chart Responsible For The Tectonic Shift In Global Markets

It's the most important chart in the world right now: real interest rates in the United States.

Real interest rates are just nominal interest rates (the rate you see on a 10-year Treasury bond, for example) adjusted for inflation. So if interest rates are rising, and inflation is falling, that's going to cause real interest rates to spike.

For the first time in years, real interest rates are rising rapidly in America, leading to strength in the U.S. dollar – which is causing currencies around the world to crumble (especially in Japan and in emerging markets). The reason rising real interest rates cause the dollar to jump is because investors prefer to have a currency in a market that pays more.

As David Wessel puts it in this morning's Wall Street Journal"The tectonic plates of the world economy are shifting."

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