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Saturday, June 25, 2011

BookDaily Update

 
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BookDaily Update
Sunday June 26, 2011

At the Sharpe End

By Hugh Ashton
ISBN: 9784990516536
 

IT HAD BEEN AN AGGRAVATING DAY for Kenneth Sharpe as he trudged his way round central Tokyo. A stranger, an Australian backpacker from the look and sound of him, had dug his hooks into Sharpe on the morning train, and bent his ear with some crazy story about giant insects and a theme park. Sharpe didn’t really remember or care about the details – he’d turned off after a couple of minutes, writing off the guy as a first-order loony.

Next, when he turned up to his client’s office for a meeting that had been arranged two weeks previously, he found that his contact had been transferred to Singapore the day after the meeting had been arranged, but had neglected to tell ...

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Dervish Is Digital

By Pat Cadigan
ISBN: 9780330391078
 

Sitting on the fake leather chair in the cheesy hotel room, Konstantin thought, This will be a very serious weapon.

"Now, this," said the slim, angular woman sitting on the bed, "this is a very serious weapon." Konstantin could see that she was a very serious arms dealer, meticulously well dressed, the tasteful, classic lines of her jacket and pleated skirt suggesting a high-ranking officer of a yacht club that would not, for one moment, consider admitting Konstantin or anyone like her. Especially not in those leggings with that tunic. The one detail that said otherwise, the detail you had to watch for so you could tell the ...

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Today's Business & Economics Chapter

 
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Business & Investing
Sunday June 26, 2011
The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis
by Kent Moors
 

The Meaning of Oil Vega

There is unprecedented volatility entering the oil market, transforming pricing and increasing instability. It will place a premium on setting prices via futures contracts without due regard for the actual market value of the underlying crude oil consignments. Increasing usage of synthetic derivatives will augment the problem in a manner reminiscent of the subprime mortgage disaster, but having an even more pronounced impact. Neither the way in which oil companies are structured or operate will temper this oncoming wave, while governmental action worldwide will only exacerbate the crisis.

In short, there is a perfect storm developing in the energy sector and it's going to be a nasty one.

The pages to follow detail what that storm looks like. This book results from years of analysis, consulting and practice in a very changing oil sector. Often such activity has ended being more about broader political, economic, or financial matters than directly related to the underlying raw material itself. Such a focus is hardly surprising, given the endemic position of crude oil, the impact its supply and pricing has on modern ideas of technology and lifestyle, and the new world of regarding oil as both a commodity and an asset. In addition, based on holding a doctorate in political science, having personally experienced the economic transitions in what suddenly became a post-Soviet area, and spending some three decades teaching about the relationships between theory and practice, my view is that the transitions may have come about more easily than I first realized.

One conclusion has clearly emerged from these experiences. The ongoing situation surrounding oil will encompass an increasingly volatile mixture (no pun intended) of market, investment, and political ramifications. For several years, it has been my intention to write down some extended thoughts about this tripartite connection and the volatility emerging as a consequence. I had always intended that the product would bring a broad variety of studies to bear on an accelerating problem in a way that would allow both the interested general reader and the specialist to gain some benefit from the treatment.

Such an idea has been an ongoing work in progress for the past five years. As both an academic and a consultant, I had observed the rising concerns on the oil question expressed by researchers and practitioners. The nature of oil volatility provided the focus for what I intended to write. Only recently, however, has my project also obtained an immediacy of purpose.

That immediacy resulted from two occasions some five weeks apart. Both confirmed my analysis but also telegraphed that the threat was advancing much faster than I had anticipated. The first was an early August 2009 meeting held in The City, London's financial center. In attendance was a select group of hedge-fund directors, investment bankers, market analysts, and risk managers, along with the usual support coterie of numbers crunchers and model builders. The subject was oil and the prognosis was both unanimous and extraordinary.

The assembled were not there to announce the demise of the oil age—at least, not yet. But they were holding a wake of sorts. Crude oil would remain a commodity bought and sold on exchanges worldwide, with the benchmark prices issued each trading day from New York and London largely determining the price. The catch was this. Sketched in their facial expressions and couched in carefully chosen words that morning was a startling revelation. Nobody in the room still believed they could either control oil volatility or, for that matter, provide adequate estimates of it. Oil was their lifeblood, a main source of their revenue and influence, the asset around which they had constructed a mighty edifice of financial power. And they no longer had a clue where it was headed.

That the gathering occurred in London, rather than Vienna (where OPEC, the preeminent producers' group meets) or New York (the location of most daily trades in the product), tells one much about how oil investment has changed. More money is raised for international oil projects within a three-mile radius of the Liverpool Street rail station than any other single place on earth. Wells may be spud in the Saudi desert, the Russian tundra, the Nigerian delta, or the jungles of New Guinea. Futures may trade the extracted product on stock exchanges throughout the world. However, funding for the drilling, service, and wellhead operations, and the pipelines and processing facilities, progressively comes from the London Stock Exchange (LSE) or, in particular for the companies emerging in response to the rapidly changing market, the LSE's Alternative Investment Market (AIM).

In late September 2009, the second meeting took place. This time the location was the new convention center in Pittsburgh and the venue was a meeting of the G20 heads of state—the 19 dominant global economies with the European Union as an organizational entity thrown in for good measure. The public usually receives only two views of such meetings—the staged press conferences and the unrest in the streets. Neither actually says much about what is really going on. In far less public sessions agendas are set, consensus is forged, and common statements of purpose are developed. These may be multilateral exercises or bilateral agreements. Either way, the gathering facilitates, but hardly concludes, the process. The success of the meetings is determined at sessions taking place elsewhere after it has ended. The G20 in Pittsburgh followed such a format.

The formal proceedings in Pittsburgh lasted less than two days. The agenda-setting meetings away from public view, however, transpired over a five-day period. At one of those sessions, advisors attached to various national delegations discussed the state of the oil market. They reflected the same concerns addressed by the London bankers five weeks earlier. Only this time, in dialogue that intended to set an ongoing agenda for future meetings, they reached a quick agreement on two matters. First, they anticipated a return of the oil market volatility that resulted in a high of $147.27 a barrel by July 11, 2008, doubling prices in less than a year. Second, this time more pronounced international political consequences would emerge as a direct result of the oil swings.

These meetings in London and Pittsburgh are the most recent indications that we have a major problem developing, one involving financial and political consequences directly resulting from what takes place in the oil market. Volatility remains the catalyst. However, one aspect has changed. We can no longer regard it as something likely to occur in the remote future. It is fast approaching.

This book is not a call to arms on energy security, a demand for a renewed commitment to alternative energy, or an argument for resurgence in international oil dialogue. All of these are certainly necessary, but not the primary focus of this treatment. None of these will realize much success unless we come to grips with the underlying issue. As we progressively remove ourselves from the worst financial crisis in three generations, as this long slow process of recovery unfolds, a fundamentally different, less stable, and far less predictable oil market will be there to greet us. It is toward an understanding of this altered state of affairs that the following analysis directs attention. Make no mistake. While the changes will first manifest themselves in the trading markets, it will be the political playing field that will ultimately decide matters.

What I call oil vega will be the single most pervasive and disturbing element of the energy market moving forward. It speaks of rising volatility, an inability to predict pricing changes or impact, deteriorating policy alternatives, and the probable global political consequences. Instability in both the market and governmental responses to it will likely result in intensified and repetitive cycles of crises, producing increasingly dangerous political consequences.

I have borrowed the concept of vega from option traders to label this new environment. As traders use it, vega relates to the way in which the price of an option changes with the change in volatility. Of course, things are never quite that easy. Traders need to determine a value for the option and be able to revise their estimates on that value as market changes take place in the futures contract on which it is based. For that they need a pricing model. The volatility component in their pricing model, from which one determines a theoretical value for the option against which a trader calculates the option's market price, is called implied volatility. Vega represents the rate of change in the theoretical value of an option as it relates to a change in implied volatility.

Vega is, therefore, a "second order" or derivative concept to the actual change in the value of a security. It measures the amount by which the price of an option changes when volatility changes. Volatility is simply the measurement of how often and by what amount a market factor revises. Usually, that factor is price, and is represented by another "Greek"—ITLδITL. Now this translates into the presence of a higher vega, indicating greater fluctuations in the underlying prices of actual contracts.

Volatility is often regarded as a general measure of the risk in an option (or security, stock share, tradable asset, etc.). It measures anticipated fluctuations over a period of time. One expects that price will change more often for an instrument with higher volatility. The greater the price swing, the greater the volatility. Options for underlying securities having high volatility will cost more than those with low volatility. Several measures are used to gauge volatility. One of the most common is calculating a standard deviation. If the measurement is against a known common index, such as determining stock volatility against the S&P index, the result is a security's ITLβITL. While not included in the usual "Greeks" applied by option traders, beta obviously does have some use as a measure of the market (nondiversifiable) risk associated with any security. Options, however, do not have a readily available common index against which to gauge changes in price. Also, this may begin with a consideration of price changes, but notice that vega describes the rate of the change, not simply the change itself.

This will be important in our usage, since the essential thesis of this book is that the increasing rate (along with the range) of changes will generate instability. This will have a pervasive and serious impact. Simply put, oil vega will result in the increasing inability to determine the genuine value of crude oil based on its market price.

That inability will erode the ability to predict, plan and compensate. This will be problem enough for the market. However, given the interconnection between the public and private sectors when it comes to energy policy, the consequences of oil vega will impact most visibly and seriously on the global intergovernmental stage.

This new environment is certain to raise the political heat, shorten international tempers, and make global oil a much more volatile and less predictable commodity. Unless we come to grips with the changes now emerging, none of the moves to make nations more secure, uncover new energy sources, or bring about a global oil consensus will make much difference. A rising tide of uncertainty will engulf the first. The second, while certainly the essential solution in the long term, will not have time to develop before the crisis hits. The volatile nature of crude oil will already have significantly damaged the market well before a weaning from primary dependence upon oil is possible. The third will fall victim to the competing policies of rentier nations, transit states, and end-consuming countries.

We have developing market (dis)order—a pervasive and endemic disequilibrium masquerading as the "new order" in the oil market. It is not that we will suddenly run out of crude oil, although that day is approaching. The gravamen of the situation involves the increasing inability to develop adequate market remedies for expanding volatility. An even more unsettling shortcoming will develop: It will become progressively more difficult to predict the volatility itself.

Supply meeting demand is, of course, a fundamental ingredient in the instability, especially in how participants regard the cycle of volatility as it unfolds. However, it is not the supply-demand relationship itself that causes the problem. Available supply is less the sole driving issue in this new (dis)order. Price fluctuations will result from more than simply the perception of how much crude oil is left.

A simple review of predictions presented prior to the (usually) Wednesday morning release of Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly figures on oil and oil product inventories indicates current predictive abilities are already suspect. The "actual" figures provided are often quite at variance to the predictions. We also are becoming increasingly concerned about the ability of EIA or the International Energy Agency (IEA) to provide meaningful worldwide demand figures. Significant demand pressures are underestimated or not considered at all. The IEA has acknowledged this problem, essentially resulting from continued overreliance on demand from developed countries and selected developing markets (e.g., China, India, East Asia) and underestimation of significant demand pressures in producing countries and other less-developed regions of the world.

A clear signal that what I call oil vega is becoming a rising concern was issued by the EIA on October 7, 2009. It has found it necessary to follow a new reporting format.

Energy prices are volatile. They change as market participants adjust their expectations to new information from physical energy markets and markets for energy-related financial derivatives. Futures and options markets are a valuable source of information regarding these changing expectations.

Starting with the October 2009 issue [released October 6, 2009], Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) began tracking crude oil and natural gas futures prices and the market's assessment of the range in which prices are expected to trade. We do this using a measure of risk derived from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Light Sweet Crude Oil Options and Natural Gas Options markets known as "implied volatility." Implied volatility is nothing more than a standard deviation for the expected futures returns embedded in the option's price.

The commodity option-pricing model is derived directly from the Black-Scholes option pricing model, based upon the Black-Scholes equation—the most famous single formula ever articulated for trading options.

The equation itself produces a model that is often quite restrictive in application, given that it involves six major assumptions: (1) there are no dividends on the underlying security during the life of the option, (2) European-style exercise (that is, only at expiry) is followed, (3) markets are efficient, (4) there are no commissions charged, (5) interest rates are constant and known, and (6) returns exhibit lognormal distribution (i.e., providing a normal distribution, allowing thereby the use of standard statistical techniques on the resulting data). This last assumption is very significant in the estimation of option premiums since a lognormal distribution is usually a better indication of anticipated price movements than the direct usage of variables because the log of returns is bounded downside at zero. Despite its shortcomings, however, the model still provides the ability to make approximations useful in a wide range of applications. As is often the case, the devil remains in the details!

In turn, the Black-Scholes option pricing model includes as variables the spot price (market price of the underlying asset on the valuation date), the strike price (the price at which the holder of the option has the right to buy or sell the underlying contract), the time until the option expires, the risk-free interest rate until expiry (typically a zero coupon government bond yield), volatility, and the average yield of the underlying asset for the life of the option.

(Continues...)

 
 
 
 
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About Human Resources: Write a Thank You Letter a Week

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From Susan M. Heathfield, your Guide to Human Resources

Vol. 12 No. 88 - ISSN: 1533-3698 June 25, 2011

Dear People:

How to increase emotional intelligence is a popular and pursued topic on this site. The first step is knowing where and how you need to improve emotional intelligence. Some people gush emotional intelligence to the point that they are dysfunctional as business advisors because of their single fixation on emotions and people. Others are clueless about their impact on coworkers, executive colleagues, and reporting employees. Each is a significant downside for employees and their careers. In my quest, and belief, that people can improve their emotional intelligence, I found this test applicable and interesting. So might you.

Read more and take the test....

Do you know that I write a new blog post every day? Check out the blog in the center column on my home page.

Comments, questions, suggestions? Email Me.

Please forward this newsletter, in its entirety, to your colleagues, coworkers and friends, because you want to add value to their work and lives.

Regards and wishing you and yours the best this weekend,

Susan


Write a Thank You Letter a Week

Nothing reinforces your praise, recognition, and heartfelt thank you like a letter. A thank you letter magnifies the power of your spoken recognition. It lasts forever and employees refer to them with pride. If you write a thank you letter every week, imagine the number of employees who would feel engaged and motivated. I've added new samples to my collection for your use.


Know the Myths About Millennials?

You've hired millennials. Now how can you keep them around? If you are like most business leaders, you've no doubt noticed a trend in the way employees behave in recent years. Most likely you consider it a negative trend - too much entitlement, not enough loyalty, no work ethic, only interested in themselves, and on and on. But I challenge you to consider that perhaps these are not negative trends, just different ones. Things aren't always what they seem with millennials.


How Are You Spending Your Life's Journey Time?

William Raspberry, in his last syndicated column, reflected on why he was retiring from the column and what he wanted to do next with his life. Indeed, he retired from the column because there are so many more dreams he wants to accomplish with his remaining time. Raspberry says, "The next step -- or at any rate, my next step -- involves two more questions: What is worth doing? What is within my reach?" Read more...

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Does Your Workplace Inspire Motivation?

Want to know more about motivation at work? Motivation is that wonderful energy, drive, and excitement that employees expend when they are inspired to contribute. Motivation is tapped with goals, clear expectations, recognition, feedback, and encouraging management. Motivation flourishes in a positive employee and customer focused work culture. Use these ideas to foster motivation in your workplace.


 


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Continuing Improvements in the Human Standard of Living

D.R. U.S. versionThe Daily Reckoning U.S. Edition Home . Archives . Unsubscribe
More Sense In One Issue Than A Month of CNBC
The Daily Reckoning | Saturday, June 25, 2011

  • One giant leap for man...one giant opportunity for your portfolio,
  • Reckoners weigh in on "crisis vacationing," flaccid bank lending and possible "igniter events,"
  • Plus, all the rest of this week's reckonings, neatly archived for your high-flying enjoyment...
-------------------------------------------------------

The Beginning of the End For Money-Grubbing OPEC

Israel just discovered what could be the 2nd largest oil basin in the world - officially giving OPEC the middle finger.

Watch this urgent briefing for your chance to profit from Israel's world-changing $27 trillion discovery.

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Continuing Improvements in the Human Standard of Living
Joel Bowman
Joel Bowman
Checking in from Buenos Aires, Argentina...

Actually, we're not checking in from Buenos Aires at all. In fact, by the time you read this, your editor will be flying 40,000 feet above the Andes, somewhere between Lima, Peru, and Cartagena, Colombia. We'll be cruising along at a terrific speed, probably reading a newspaper or enjoying the in-flight entertainment...anything to avoid thinking about the plotline of the movie Alive.

Such are the marvels of modern technology. For all its flaws (and there are many), there is surely little doubt that the standard of living we enjoy today is infinitely higher than that of our cave- or desert- dwelling ancestors. Imagine, for example, the look on Y-chromosomal Adam's face if you'd told him about jet engines, or Mitochondrial Eve's expression had she been shown an email, or an iPhone...or even a reasonably well-crafted wineglass. Theirs was a time to which even the most committed hippy would not reasonably wish to return.

As a species, we've had our share of evolutionary fits and starts. One century we get a Galileo or a Newton or a Darwin, and the whole of humanity appears poised to take a giant leap forward from atop their mighty shoulders. The next we are weighted with a Roosevelt or a Greenspan or a Bernanke, and we have to wonder if we've really learned anything at all.

But against the persistent and devolutionary aspirations of the political class, human ingenuity continues along its upward, onward trajectory. And in few arenas is this progress rendered clearer than in the field of medical technology. In fact, as Patrick Cox explains in this week's feature column, we may well be on the verge of another renaissance in this most important of fields.

"In all my years of research," writes Patrick, "I have never seen such an era of innovation and breakthroughs in the medical field as we are witnessing today...

"We are seeing more and more small biotech companies racing toward the next big breakthrough. To be on the forefront of technology in this day and age can lead to outstanding profits...

"In the coming years," Patrick continues, "we could see major developments in the treatment of cancers, Alzheimer's disease and many other life-threatening diseases - in fact there are many companies coming close already."

In this week's feature column, Patrick gives us the scoop on "one biotech area that sometimes gets forgotten by investors...an area that has not seen a major breakthrough since the 1920s."

For our technology expert's full essay, please see here: Profiting from the War Against Bacteria

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Cancer "Magic Bullet?" Small Biotech Set to Rocket?

A little-known biotech company is making medical history... but with FDA fast track review status for their cancer treatment, this small company might not stay "little-known" for long...

So you must move fast if you want to get in on the ground floor of what could be the biggest medical breakthrough in decades...

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ALSO THIS WEEK in The Daily Reckoning...
Debt: America's Bi-Partisan Blame Game
By Addison Wiggin
Baltimore, Maryland


Following the economic policy of the US, [Treasury Secretary Tim] Geithner at the Treasury, and even the Federal Reserve, the hubris with which they make the decisions, they're expecting the dollar to remain the reserve currency of the world [no matter what they do] and for US Treasuries to be the "flight to safety" trade for as far as the eye can see. And now we're seeing China, and even India and South Korea, raising the alarm, saying, "Look, we are holding this debt. We expect it to be paid back. We expect it to be worth something in the future, and we don't think the path that the US is on is a very sound one, and you better do something about it."


Are We Running Out of Silver?
By Jeff Clark
Stowe, Vermont


Silver has been on fire for the last three years - substantially outperforming its spotlight-grabbing cousin, gold. Because we believe this bull run is far from over, we advise investors to always maintain exposure to the precious metals markets. But the question every investor faces in a bull market is: Do I buy now, anticipating prices will continue higher - and chance getting clobbered if a correction arrives? Or do I wait for a pullback and possibly miss out on big gains?


Buy Food!
By Chris Mayer
Gaithersburg, Maryland


A headline caught my eye last week, beyond all the ink spent on European debt woes. It read, "Hungry China Shops in Argentina." China already buys most of Argentina's soybean exports. And now China's largest farming company is trying to lock down acreage for more soybeans. It also unveiled a plan to grow wheat, corn, vegetables, fruit and even wine - all for export to China.


Bubble to Bubble, Dust to Dust
By Bill Bonner
Waterford, Ireland


On our recent trip to China, all of a sudden we felt 10 years younger. For in the coffee bars of China's futuristic cities were entrepreneurs, dreamers and lunatics who still thought it was 1999. A group of young techies filled us in: "We don't worry about profitability. We can worry about that later. We want traffic. Because we know we can monetize the traffic on the stock market." Here were people who still believed they could take eyeballs to the bank.

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Government-Backed "Pension Program" Shows You Riches Each Year

On September 30 last year, your U.S. government sponsored "safety net" officially shrunk.

That's why you must start collecting safe, legal money every year with this "other program" today. Get full details here.

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The Weekly Endnote...
And now, as has become customary in this space, we turn the floor over to our Fellow Reckoners...

First up, Reckoner B.M. writes:

I read with interest (OK, not a good pun) Eric's article on bank profits and lending, and particularly his quotation of Mr. Yun. As a member of the board of directors of our local Credit Union, I can add a couple more reasons why there isn't more lending going on. First, potential borrowers are not coming in the door. As you have pointed out many times, the private sector is deleveraging, which means fewer people want to go further into debt.

Second, the regulators have, belatedly, clamped down on loan underwriting, which forces financial institutions to only make loans to folks who have a reasonable expectation of paying the loan back. So, those with good credit are choosing to pay down debt, and those without good credit are precluded by regulatory oversight from adding debt. A reduction in lending shouldn't be a surprising result.

And Reckoner K.S. wrote in with this:

I enjoy The Daily Reckoning and look forward to every issue. I just wanted to note that, while a lot of people fall into the "favorite pastime" category you described about crisis vacationing, some of us send money sacrificially through organizations with great track records of high percentages (over 85% in the case of my church) of the amount actually getting to the people needing the assistance.

I can't speak for all church groups (in fact, I know I couldn't say this for some!), but for many, most donations sent to distressed areas that have suffered catastrophes get resources to the ones who need it. And most of us don't have the time and/or money to make trips to these areas to directly support the restaurants, etc., although my own denomination has teams of people who go to places to help who spend their own money to get there and buy the provisions they need to both support themselves and the projects they are there to accomplish.

And finally, Reckoner H.M offers a few parting thoughts:

As we watch world events, it is only a matter of time, a short time I believe, until an "Igniter Event" triggers a worldwide financial collapse. There is truly an amazing confluence of circumstances. The US is looking like it cannot bring itself to really get debt under control and, in fact, may not be able to do so under any circumstance. Greece is ready to implode to the point of outright revolution and will likely sink the euro. The ripple effect will be something to behold as US interests suddenly realize that the only thing left of those "promissory" notes is "sorry"!

The Middle East is a collection of flashpoints, united by hatred of Israel. The planned flotilla to run the Gaza Blockade is planned for later in June. Turkey, now under radical Islamic control, has warned Israel not to attempt to stop the flotilla. Add to this Libya's intractable leader, Syria's brutal suppression of protests, and Yemen's troubles. And then there is Egypt and its peace agreement with Israel soon to be in the trash bin.

The UN may take up the issue of a separate Palestinian state in September. This issue, regardless of outcome, will be a call to arms for Palestinian youths.

I like the advice of The Daily Reckoning contributors. It's time to be out of stocks and bonds and have a plan for independent living.

---

In a final note, your managing editor is this weekend en route to Colombia along with a couple of Kiwi investors. We'll be reporting, as usual, from the road during our little excursion. If you plan to be in Bogotá on Thursday or Friday (30th-1st) and would like to meet up for a drink and a chat about the local goings on, drop us a line at the address below. First round is on us.

And, as always, enjoy your weekend.

Cheers,

Joel Bowman
Managing Editor
The Daily Reckoning

-------------------------------------------------------

Here at The Daily Reckoning, we value your questions and comments. If you would like to send us a few thoughts of your own, please address them to your managing editor at joel@dailyreckoning.com
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The Bonner Diaries The Mogambo Guru The D.R. Extras!

Bubble to Bubble, Dust to Dust
On our recent trip to China, all of a sudden we felt 10 years younger. For in the coffee bars of China's futuristic cities were entrepreneurs, dreamers and lunatics who still thought it was 1999. A group of young techies filled us in: "We don't worry about profitability. We can worry about that later. We want traffic."

The Divergent Paths of Growth and Human Progress

Economic Growth in the Internet Age

China: Where Money Is Treated Best
I am sure that Mr. Pento is right because every country on the Face Of The Planet (FOTP) is desperately creating more and more money, and the money will eventually find its way to the place where it is treated best and/or has the best prospects, which is, in this case, Bob. Oops! I meant "China."

Buying Gold on the Price Inflation Guarantee

Awaiting the "Zero Hour" of Available Credit

Elitism in China: Understanding the Communist Party
Despite rampant corruption in government — which the US itself is no stranger to — the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be celebrating its 90th anniversary a week from today, on July 1st. Although much discussed, the one-party system is little understood outside of China.

Trichet Deep-Sixes Euro Rally

Who's Really More Productive? Ranking the Top-20 US vs European States

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The Daily Reckoning: Now in its 11th year, The Daily Reckoning is the flagship e-letter of Baltimore-based financial research firm and publishing group Agora Financial, a subsidiary of Agora Inc. The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Published daily in six countries and three languages, each issue delivers a feature-length article by a senior member of our team and a guest essay from one of many leading thinkers and nationally acclaimed columnists.
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