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Thursday, January 9, 2014

Claman On Call: E-cigarette commercials coming to the Super Bowl?

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Daily Market Update with Liz Claman

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Claman on Call: FBN's Cheryl Casone with an after-hours web-exclusive on the markets, investing in emerging markets, Shazam, e-cigarette advertising.

On Our Radar: News We're Following

Shazam CEO: At least 12 months away from an IPO
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Get That Out Of Here

It's time to do some cleaning and get rid of a lot of stuff you've got lying around the house.

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21 Things You Should Throw Away Right Now

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Europe's new low

Mario Draghi is back in unfortunately familiar territory. Reuters writes: “the European Central Bank on Thursday forcefully underlined its determination to take action” if something that is already a problem becomes even more of a problem. Today, the ECB held rates steady and Draghi addressed Europe’s latest inflation reading of 0.8% in December, which is still well below the central bank’s 2% target. Excluding fuel and food, inflation hit a record low of 0.7%.

Antonio Fatas parses an interview Draghi gave with Der Spiegel, and likes “his honesty and clarity when he asserts that all German fears about increasing inflation in the Euro area have turned to be wrong”. Fatas is unsure, however, whether Draghi can do much, against both Germany’s objections and his own structural limitations, to move inflation higher.

Worryingly low inflation is not a new phenomenon in Europe. In November, Ryan looked at the growing fear of disinflation, if not deflation, in Europe. Matt Yglesias doesn’t think the ECB is being forceful on inflation. On the contrary, he argues it is being unacceptably blasé:

They're saying it doesn't matter that they undershot their inflation target in 2013 because after undershooting it again in 2014 they're on course to undershoot it less drastically in 2015 and then by 2016 they should be back on track.

Another persistently concerning trend: unemployment in the euro zone has now stayed at a record high of 12.1% for eight months. And youth unemployment is much, much worse, with jobless rates for young adults above 50% in Greece and Spain. The rate of change has been rapid: since 2008, the unemployment rate among 15-24 year-olds in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland has increased 15 percentage points or more.

Bloomberg View’s Nicholas Crafts comes away with a dismal assessment of Europe’s economy: “In some ways, the euro area’s prospects are more challenging than the parallel with the Great Depression suggests. If only things were as bad as in the 1930s...” Crafts argues that avoiding deflation is crucial, but at some point, high unemployment and low growth will force the ECB to contemplate things like “debt forgiveness, debt restructuring and outright default” among member states.

Marco Buti, the European Commission’s Director-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, lays out a “consistent trinity for the Eurozone”: safeguard member states’ social safety nets, realize that “vulnerable economies cannot reduce their debts and simultaneously gain competitiveness”, and create a truly integrated financial system. Reuters' Jason Lange echoes the idea that a stronger banking union could help boost the euro zone’s economy. But like so many other potential reforms, Germany is opposed to that idea. -- Ben Walsh

On to today’s links:

Equals
Is there an education penalty for women? - Shane Ferro

Must Read
Roger Ailes' American idyll: ideological battles, personal vendettas, and a terrorism-proof panic room - Gabriel Sherman

Bitcoin
Inside the bizarre, fantastical world of Bitcoin mining - Bloomberg Businessweek

Housing
Home price gains in 2013 were caused by a post-crisis bounce, not job growth - Jed Kolko

It's Academic
"Mathew Martoma ... was expelled from Harvard Law School in 1999 for creating a false transcript" - Matthew Goldstein

Primary Sources
The full text of New York AG / BlackRock settlement - NY Attorney General

Tech
"We are Huxleying ourselves into the full Orwell" - Cory Doctorow

New Normal
Lenders are using social media data to determine your creditworthiness - WSJ

Old Normal
Illegal yellow margarine - Mental Floss

Oxpeckers
The reluctant patriot: how George Orwell reconciled himself with England - New Statesman
George Will hates fuel efficiency, doesn't understand numbers - Jonathan Chait
"Blogs live" - David Weinberger

Big Brother Inc.
Gatsby's Q score: will fiction be crowd-tested? - Laura Miller

So Hot Right Now
"In cocktails Parisians can taste liberation from wine’s outsize role in French culture" - Punch

Sad But True
"There are, bluntly, too many lackluster, forgettable and just plain bad movies" - Manohla Dargis

Pivots
The former mouthpiece of apartheid is now one of the world’s most successful tech investors - John McDuling

Charts
Fun with per capita incomes - Urbanophile

Legalese
Senator Warren wants the public to know when "government settlement" actually means "tax break" - Elizabeth Warren

Follow Counterparties on Twitter. And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.


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Business Today: Labor market data suggest economy strengthening

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01/9/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Labor market data suggest economy strengthening
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits last week fell and planned layoffs hit a 13-1/2 year low in December, adding to a range of data that have suggested the economy is gaining steam.
Bernanke gives upbeat assessment of economy to U.S. senators
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday offered an optimistic view on the U.S. economy's prospects to Democratic senators, but warned that "tough decisions" were ahead on dealing with long-term budget deficits and healthcare costs, according to lawmakers present.
Wall St. ends mostly flat before U.S. payrolls data
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended little changed on Thursday in a choppy session ahead of Friday's payrolls report, which may provide insights into whether the Federal Reserve may announce another cut to quantitative easing at its meeting this month.
SAC's Martoma faced discipline at Harvard, documents show
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Years before he went on trial for insider trading, former SAC Capital Advisors portfolio manager Mathew Martoma faced disciplinary action while at Harvard Law School, according to court records unsealed on Thursday.
Exclusive: Goldman Sachs miner halts coal exports from Colombia
BOGOTA (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs -owned miner Colombian National Resources (CNR) has halted coal exports from Colombia because CNR cannot comply with a new environmental law governing port operations, a company source told Reuters on Thursday.
JPMorgan Chase plans to exit prepaid card business
NEW YORK (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co plans to sell or exit over time its business of issuing prepaid cards for corporate payrolls and government tax refunds and benefits, the company said on Thursday.
Discounts slam U.S. retailers' holiday season profits
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Many large U.S. retailers slashed their earnings forecasts on Thursday because of steep discounts they offered during the holidays to persuade reluctant consumers.
U.S. airline shares jump on strong December results
(Reuters) - Shares of United Continental Holdings rose as much as 12 percent on Thursday as the airline sector was buoyed by strong December traffic reports that some analysts said boded well for upcoming earnings.
U.S. ICSC retail sales 3.7 percent in December
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. comparable chain store sales rose 3.7 percent in December from a year earlier after increasing 2.1 percent in November, the International Council of Shopping Centers said in a report on Thursday.
Alcoa to pay $384 million to settle Bahrain bribery charges
(Reuters) - Alcoa Inc and a joint venture it controls have agreed to pay $384 million to resolve charges of bribing officials of a Bahraini state-controlled aluminum smelter, marking one of the largest U.S. anti-corruption settlements of its kind.
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