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Thursday, May 15, 2014

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Europe's easing growth

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European growth is weak. As a whole, eurozone GDP grew just 0.2% in the first quarter, and no individual economy grew more than 1.1% (Poland and Hungary). Germany, the UK, and Spain all reported modest growth, but Portugal, Italy, and the Netherlands all saw negative growth while France was completely flat. The latest OECD report on the global economy, noted that the euro area is expected to grow by 1.2% this year, but "monetary policy needs to remain accommodative" and " interest rate reduction is merited, given low and falling inflation".

At yesterday's annual SALT conference of hedge-fund investors and managers, David Tepper said the ECB is "really, really behind the curve", and there is a risk to the global economy if the ECB doesn't take drastic action. Jennifer McKeown wrote in a note for Capital Economics that she expects "more significant action, including small cuts in the refinancing and deposit rates and quite possibly a full blown QE programme, to come next month or soon after".

But it's unclear how far Europe's central bank is willing to go. Reuters reports that the ECB is preparing to loosen its monetary policy at its upcoming June meeting, possibly going as far as cutting the deposit rate into negative territory. The package includes "stimulus for the euro zone economy but falls short of the large-scale effect the ECB could unleash with a major program of quantitative easing".

A DBS research note from April says that QE would be fundamentally more challenging in Europe's bank-based system than it is in the U.S.'s capital markets system. First, policymakers would have to choose what kind of assets to buy. Then, they would have to make sure the purchases were actually legal — a hurdle after the difficulty the ECB has had with its outright monetary transactions program.

But Larry Elliott thinks QE is eventually inevitable because of the eurozone's long list of economic problems:

Tension in Ukraine is eating into business and consumer confidence. China's slowdown will have an impact on Germany's export-dependent economy … The commercial banks are still weak following the losses made in the 2008-09 recession. Credit taps have been turned off and, unlike in the UK or the US, there has been no attempt at off-setting action by the European Central Bank. … This lack of finance is making it hard for the recovery to get traction.</blockquote>

Then again, it's probably worth pointing out that the effectiveness of QE on the economy is still an open question. — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Educational
Housing segregation is holding back the promise of Brown v. Board of Education - Emily Badger

The Internet
How the recent European internet privacy ruling makes the web a more unequal place - Izabella Kaminska

Oxpeckers
The NYT has some serious issues with its digital strategy - BuzzFeed

Charts
Droughts in California and Texas are causing burritoflation - Matt Phillips

Equals
Why salaries shouldn't be secret - Felix Salmon
A lament on the axing of Jill Abramson - Shane Ferro

China
The Chinese housing market is going bust (again) - Matt O'Brien

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Business Today: Jobless claims hit seven-year low, inflation ticks up

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05/15/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Jobless claims hit seven-year low, inflation ticks up
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits hit a seven-year low last week while consumer prices recorded their largest increase in 10 months in April, pointing to a firming economy.
Wall St. falls with Wal-Mart; Dow's worst drop in a month
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, giving the Dow its worst decline in a month, as small-cap shares extended their retreat and Wal-Mart's results disappointed.
J.C. Penney quarterly sales rise 6.3 percent, shares surge
(Reuters) - Department store operator J.C. Penney Co Inc reported a 6.3 percent rise in first-quarter sales, helped by strong sales of household goods and men's and women's apparel.
Wal-Mart sales growth weakest in five years, outlook cautious
(Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc forecast second-quarter profit below analysts' estimates after reporting its smallest growth in quarterly sales in nearly five years, as a severe winter kept shoppers from its stores.
Credit Suisse nears $2.5 billion deal to end U.S. tax-evasion probe: sources
(Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG is expected to plead guilty and pay more than $2.5 billion to U.S. authorities to resolve charges that the Swiss bank helped Americans evade U.S. taxes, people familiar with the discussions said on Thursday.
FCC votes to restrict AT&T, Verizon in 2015 spectrum auction
(Reuters) - U.S. telecom regulators on Thursday voted to limit how much spectrum Verizon Communications Inc and AT&T Inc will be able to buy in next year's auction of highly valuable wireless airwaves.
GM recalls almost 3 million vehicles, to take charge of up to $200 million
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Co said on Thursday it has issued five more recalls, covering almost 3 million vehicles globally, and is expected to take a charge of up to $200 million.
Amid protests, U.S. FCC proposes new 'net neutrality' rules
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Thursday advanced a "net neutrality" proposal that would ban Internet providers from blocking or slowing down access to websites but may let them charge content companies for faster and more reliable delivery of their traffic to users.
France grabs for power over Alstom future with new takeover law
PARIS (Reuters) - The French government gave itself the power to block foreign corporate takeovers in "strategic" sectors on Thursday, throwing up a potential roadblock to General Electric's $16.9 billion bid for Alstom's energy assets.
SAP to cut between 1,500-2,500 jobs as cloud takes over
STUTTGART, Germany (Reuters) - German software company SAP is planning to cut between 1,500 and 2,500 jobs as software programmes switch to the cloud, meaning fewer onsite staff are required, a source said on Thursday.
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Jobless claims hit seven-year low, inflation ticks up
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