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Monday, February 24, 2014

Robin Thicke, Paula Patton confirm split

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Robin Thicke, Paula Patton confirm split
Robin Thicke, Paula Patton confirm split

Robin Thicke and Paula Patton have confirmed they have separated after nearly ten years of marriage.

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Ukraine's other crisis

The Ukrainian finance ministry says it needs $35 billion in aid over the next two years to avoid default. The country had been relying on a $15 billion Russian rescue package to service its debt. $12 billion of that deal is still to be delivered, and it’s unclear whether that will happen while former president Viktor Yanukovich remains a fugitive.

That said, the fiscal future of the Ukrainian government, now headed by interim presdient Olexandr Turchynov, is looking markedly more stable than it was last week, going by prices in the bond market. CDS on 5-year government bonds fell 15% today, and yields on the 10-year benchmark bond fell to a three-week low of 8.975%.

On Friday, S&P cut Ukraine’s long-term credit rating from CCC+ to CCC, saying “it’s likely that Ukraine will default in the absence of significantly favorable changes in circumstance”. Deutsche Bank, looking at the CDS market, puts Ukraine’s annualized chance of defaulting at just over 12%.

The country’s economy has serious structural issues. Ukrainian consumers pay just 20% of their country’s wholesale energy costs, leaving the state on the hook for the rest. Since 2009, Ukraine has been put in a further bind: it agreed to a 10-year deal to buy Russian gas at above-market prices.

One possibility is for the the World Bank or International Monetary Fund to offer a multi-billion dollar loan package. But a long-term package from from either group will likely have to wait until there’s an elected government to deal with, and would come with conditions like currency reform and budget cuts that are unlikely to be well received by a democratically elected government. In the meantime, short-term aid from the EU and the IMF is a possible stopgap measure.

There’s always the possibility that Russia could re-enter the discussion with a new aid offer, or continue to provide the remainder of the earlier $15 billion deal. “Moscow doesn’t send tanks into revolting former vassals any more. It sends dollars,” says FT Alphaville’s Joseph Cotterill. Russia can halt that flow of dollars quite quickly, and resume it just as rapidly. -- Ben Walsh

On to today’s links:

Must Read
After Indian farmers commit suicide, debts still haunt their families - NYT

Charts
Debunking the myth of America's manufacturing "renaissance" - Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Chris Papageorgiou
Why you shouldn't give money to highly-selective colleges: inequality - Matt Yglesias

Helpful Excuses
You can now blame your ancestors for much of your economic fate - Gregory Clark

Monopolies
The smarter way to fight the cable company monopolies? Cut down regulations - Jack Shafer
Comcast's deal with Netflix represents "a fundamental shift in power in the Internet economy" - Timothy Lee
Why Netflix shouldn't pay Internet providers - Guan Yang

Trends
The world could reach "peak car" in the next decade - Bloomberg

Alpha
Ackman explains his bet on Fannie and Freddie - WSJ

Oxpeckers
Why video won't save online journalism: it's expensive, and neither readers nor advertisers want it:  - Dylan Byers
"Forbes is an obvious fraud. It is just... a user comment site" - Michael Wolff

Ugh
The Texas fracking boom: toxic clouds, health concerns, and companies policing themselves -  Lisa Song, Jim Morris, and David Hasemyer

Wonks
Why rational people can't be good economic forecasters - Justin Fox

Housing
Is the weakness in the housing market just temporary? - Bill McBride

Pivots
Fabrice Toure is teaching Elements of Econ Analysis 3 this spring quarter - University of Chicago

Billionaire Whimsy
A supersonic private jet with HD screens for windows - Animal New York

Study Says
Being called out for racial bias reduces racial bias - Brookings
Dishonesty makes you more creative - Pacific Standard

Facebook
Facebook is becoming a P&G-style brand holding company - Dave Knox

New Normal
New trend: people naming their kids after guns - Tyler Cowen

Follow Counterparties on Twitter. And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

 

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Business Today: Icahn, eBay trade accusations as fight escalates

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02/24/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Icahn, eBay trade accusations as fight escalates
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Carl Icahn accused eBay Inc Chief Executive John Donahoe of failing to spot - or ignoring - conflicts of interest on the company's board and called again for the spinoff of its fast-growing PayPal payments business.
S&P 500 ends just shy of record close; insurers climb
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Monday and the S&P 500 hit a record intraday high, helped by gains in health insurers' shares and optimism about merger activity.
Services growth slows in February: Markit
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Growth in the services sector as well as the pace of hiring slowed in February, an industry report showed on Monday, the latest data to suggest an unusually cold winter is dragging on economic activity.
Men's Wearhouse keeps up chase for Jos. A. Bank with higher offer
(Reuters) - Men's Wearhouse Inc pressed on with its bid for Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc , boosting its offer by more than 10 percent in spite of the smaller company's effort to stay independent by buying outdoor clothing retailer Eddie Bauer.
Data breach costs seen crimping Target's firepower for buybacks
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Several analysts expect Target Corp to slash its share buybacks as the third-largest U.S. retailer copes with costs tied to the massive data breach that affected millions of customers.
Harsh weather tests optimism over U.S. economy
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Unusually cold weather will take a bite out of U.S. economic growth this quarter, but a rebound seems likely on the horizon and expectations for stronger growth this year have not changed.
Senate committee sets date for Comcast, Time Warner Cable hearing
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Senate Judiciary Committee plans to hold a hearing on March 26 to examine how the proposed merger of Comcast Corp and Time Warner Cable Inc would affect consumers, the committee's chairman said on Monday.
UAW chief: Appeal in failed vote centers on outsiders, not VW
(Reuters) - The head of the United Automobile Workers said on Monday that the union's appeal of a failed organizing effort at a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, will focus on the actions of outside parties, not the German automaker itself.
AT&T speaking to Netflix about deal for faster speeds
(Reuters) - AT&T Inc said it is talks with Netflix about a possible agreement to improve performance for broadband customers who use the streaming video service.
Don't bet the farm; keep investments simple, diversified: Buffett
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett, known for his folksy straightforward communication style, turned to farming to recommend his winning strategy for investors to follow.
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