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Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Claman On Call: Claman on Call: Major indices back in the green

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Claman on Call: Major indices back in the green

FBN's Liz Claman with the latest breaking market news.

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'Jeopardy!' contestant changes the game, fans complain

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A healthy workforce

A new CBO report includes a somewhat startling stat: by 2024, the Affordable Care Act will reduce the the number of people doing full-time work by 2.5 million, compared to what it would have been otherwise. The report finds that this further shrinkage in America’s workforce will come entirely from people choosing to work less. The law “allows people to quit jobs they only still have because they are afraid of losing insurance”, says Karl Smith.

John Boehner, and many other Republicans, said the report shows the "devastating impact of Obamacare on jobs". However, Glenn Kessler writes that “the CBO, in its sober fashion, virtually screams that this is not about jobs“. It’s about a reduction in work hours, which doesn’t necessarily mean that people are leaving the workforce completely. The CBO report shows that Obamacare is a mixed bag for the economy, Josh Barro argues. Ultimately, he says, the law insures that people can “make work decisions without worrying about how those decisions affect their health insurance”, which is a good thing. In a second post, Barro also says the ACA will end up pushing wages up.

Brad Plumer thinks the big story from the report is the worsening outlook on the American economy over the next decade. Budget deficits through 2023 are going to be higher, by about $1 trillion, than the government estimated last year. Annual GDP growth is going to be slower — 2.1% on average if we’re lucky. Further, many jobs lost during the recession still haven’t come back, and some never will.

Why Americans aren’t coming back into the labor force isn’t clear. In a separate report, the CBO estimates that about half of the drop in the labor force participation rate since the recession — to 62.9% today from about 66% in 2007 — has to do with demographic trends, like aging workers retiring, while the other half is a mix of cyclical and permanent unemployment.

Two Fed researchers, Samuel Kapon and Joseph Tracy, theorize that demographics, coupled with an overheated labor market back in 2007, can explain a lot of America’s shrinking labor force.  "In other words, they find that if you correct employment numbers to reflect our aging workforce, we’re a lot closer to full employment than previously thought --  0.7 percentage points away, specifically.

Matthew Klein writes that Kapor and Tracy’s report “ignores the actual data we have on employment by age group”. For Klein, aging alone can’t explain why America’s labor force participation rate has fallen to near 30-year lows. Paul Krugman, meanwhile, finds that if you crunch the numbers his way, “around 40 percent of the decline is demographics, but the rest is cyclical, and that we’re still far below full employment.” -- Shane Ferro

On to today’s links:

Alpha
How hot money flows into and ends up abusing emerging economies - Izabella Kaminska

Charts
America's abortion rate is at a 30-year low - Sarah Kliff

Tax Arcana
The difference between beating and missing earnings at IBM: Dutch tax havens - Alex Barinka and Jesse Drucker

The Fed
The Fed's familiar predicament: spooking the market every time it tries to pull back - Tim Duy
Why monetary policy should ignore bubbles - Yichuan Wang
How econ PhDs took over the Fed - Justin Fox

Appointments
Microsoft names Nadella as its new CEO, Bill Gates steps down as chairman - Kara Swisher

Right On
Young bankers today "say they’re moved to mend the world using capitalism’s wisdom" - Max Abelson

Your Retirement Plans
AOL is leading the way to make 401(k)s worse for everyone - Jia Lynn Yang

Apple
What’s Apple building in there? (Hint: internet infrastructure) - WSJ

Wonks
"Kindreds, communes, feuds, and mating patterns in medieval France" - HBD Chick

Listicles
America's 10 most expensive insurance markets - Kaiser Health News

Crisis Retro
The tale of the national real estate market in six houses - NYT

Follow Counterparties on Twitter. And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

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Business Today: Wall Street ends up a day after sharp selloff

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02/4/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Wall Street ends up a day after sharp selloff
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Tuesday, buoyed by encouraging earnings, as the market attempted to stabilize in the wake of its largest selloff in months a day earlier.
Target executive apologizes at U.S. Senate hearing for data breach
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A senior official at Target Corp told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday the retailer was "deeply sorry" for the massive data breach it suffered over the holiday shopping period, and said it was determined to win back customers' trust.
Microsoft names Nadella as next CEO, Gates to advise on technology
SEATTLE (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp named 22-year company veteran Satya Nadella as its next chief executive officer on Tuesday and said co-founder Bill Gates would step down as chairman and advise the new CEO on technology, marking an epochal change of control at the company that drove the PC revolution.
U.S. judge approves JPMorgan's $543 million deal to settle Madoff claims
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A federal bankruptcy judge on Tuesday approved JPMorgan Chase & Co's $543 million deal to end two private lawsuits stemming from its relationship with convicted Ponzi scheme mastermind Bernard Madoff.
U.S. factory orders data eases economic slowdown fears
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods outside of the volatile transportation sector rose for a third straight month in December, easing concerns of an abrupt slowdown in manufacturing activity.
Carmaker Tesla wins China fans with 'fair' price strategy
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - In China, where higher prices mean prestige, luxury U.S. electric carmaker Tesla is taking a bold step to win over clients and cachet by curbing the markup to just half of what some of its rivals can command.
Analysis: Asian governments to central banks: it's our mess, you fix it
TOKYO/JAKARTA (Reuters) - Asia's central bankers are being forced to juggle their day jobs with what their governments have failed to do - steeling their economies for the hard times.
Pimco Total Return posts $3.5 billion outflow in January: Morningstar
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled $3.5 billion from Pimco's Total Return Fund in January, Morningstar data showed on Tuesday, the ninth straight month of outflows from the world's biggest bond fund which is run by Bill Gross.
Apple, U.S. clash in court over e-books antitrust monitor
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apple Inc urged a federal appeals court on Tuesday to put a court-appointed antitrust monitor on hold, arguing that his efforts were harming the company's business.
U.S. factory orders data eases economic slowdown fears
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. factory goods outside of the volatile transportation sector rose for a third straight month in December, easing concerns of an abrupt slowdown in manufacturing activity.
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