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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Claman On Call: Is 2014 the year IBM gets its mojo back?

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Is 2014 the year IBM gets its mojo back?

Claman on Call: FBN's Cheryl Casone with an after-hours web-exclusive on the markets, Fiat's deal to take full control of Chrysler and the future of IBM.

On Our Radar: News We're Following

Canvassed in Crimson: Bears Storm the Street in '14 Debut
New Year Snow Storm to Cripple Northeast Travel
FireEye Snags Rival Cyber Security Firm Mandiant for $1B
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Long-term disregard

On December 29, with long-term unemployment still elevated, unemployment benefits expired for some 1.3 million jobless Americans. Congress decided not to renew funding for the program, which was created in 2008 to give aid to unemployed Americans who have exhausted the usual 26 weeks of state jobless benefits. Democrats say they will revisit the issue when Congress reconvenes on January 6.

Jared Bernstein says this is not just about politics: “this is not a simple tale of good D’s and bad R’s. It’s also the result of a fiscal policy standard, often supported by both parties, that stands firmly against any deficit spending.”

North Carolina, meanwhile, has become something of an economic test case for ending extended unemployment benefits. In fact, James Pethokoukis writes, it’s being held up by some Republicans as a shining example. In July, with its unemployment rate at 8.8%, the fifth highest in the nation, the state effectively opted out of the Federal extended unemployment benefit program.

JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli calls the results the “Tar Heel test tube” -- since July, the state’s unemployment rate fell 1.5 percentage points, while the U.S. headline rate fell .4 points. The limited evidence from North Carolina, Feroli writes, suggests that benefit cuts pushed some unemployed people to accept lower-paying jobs than they would have otherwise (an employment effect) and pushed residents out of the workforce (a participation effect). "In this case," he writes, "it would appear both channels are operative but the participation effect may be more important." 

Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner argues that the participation effect seems a bit more powerful: North Carolina’s labor force shrank at roughly the same rate it that had in prior months. Evan Soltas, on the other hand, says the North Carolina example shows how to “crush the unemployed”:

The state is experiencing the largest labor-force contraction it's ever seen -- 77,000 fewer people were working or searching for work this October than a year ago. This should, but won’t, settle a partisan debate. Cutting unemployment insurance apparently hasn’t encouraged the unemployed to look harder for work: It has caused them to drop out of the labor force altogether.

"Practically everyone, liberal and conservative alike” agrees that long-term unemployment is a catastrophe, Kevin Drum writes in a post on its economic consequences. Brad Plumer has a nice guide to the topic here. The American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Strain has a conservative plan to tackle the issue -- including combining a lower-minimum wage with tax credits for the long-term unemployed. -- Ryan McCarthy

Correlation Of The Day
In the middle of the 20th century, poverty fell dramatically and global GDP soared - Roger Pielkejr

Servicey
The Groundhog Day guide to personal finance - Psychological Science

Progress
Welcome to the age of the never-ending upgrade - Joshua Topolsky

EU Mess
The state of the euro, in one graph - Paul Krugman

Right On
"Most Americans should be as worried today about the quality of their democracy as they are about the inequality of their incomes" - Brad DeLong

Looking Back
The biggest surprises from 25 years covering the US economy - David Wessel

Billionaire Whimsy
The best Kazakh bank embezzlement scandal you will read about today - Charles Forelle

Awesome
Does region shape Scotch's flavor? 86 single malts + K-means clustering = answer! Luba Gloukhov

Huh
The problem with reporters is... skepticism? - Sam Biddle

Wonks
Economics and the immigration debate - Simon Wren-Lewis

Wow
"I was an NFL player until I was fired by two cowards and a bigot" - Chris Kluwe

So Hot Right Now
Indulgence positioning: why cronuts go hand-in-hand with healthy eating trends - Elizabeth Friend

Innovation
Innovation finally comes to the bucket - Wired

Welcome to Adulthood
The debt loads of college dropouts - NBC

Bitcoin
Why I like Bitcoin: because the payments industry sucks - Chris Dixon

New Normal
"Luxury is not a dirty word anymore" (in the car business) - Jaclyn Trop

Whistleblowers
NYT editorial board: Give Snowden clemency as a whistle blower - NYT

Follow Counterparties on Twitter. And, of course, there are many more links at Counterparties.

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Business Today: Wall Street starts 2014 with drop as investors take profits

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01/2/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
Wall Street starts 2014 with drop as investors take profits
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on their first day of trading in 2014 as investors booked profits in the wake of the S&P 500's best yearly advance since 1997, with many of last year's strongest performers down on the day.
U.S. factory, jobs data show underlying strength in economy
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. factory activity held near a 2-1/2-year high in December and the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell again last week, suggesting the economy was poised for stronger growth in 2014.
FireEye buys cyber forensics firm Mandiant for about $1 billion
BOSTON (Reuters) - Cybersecurity company FireEye Inc, one of last year's hottest IPOs, has acquired Mandiant Corp, the computer forensics specialist best known for unveiling a secretive Chinese military unit believed to be behind a series of hacking attacks on U.S. companies.
Fisker seeks rejection of Chinese suitor it blames for its bankruptcy
(Reuters) - Fisker Automotive, the bankrupt maker of a plug-in hybrid sports car, asked a federal judge to approve its proposed sale to a Hong Kong tycoon rather than a Chinese suitor that Fisker alleged was to blame for its failure.
Citigroup paid $250 million to resolve U.S. mortgage suit
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. paid $250 million to taxpayer-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to settle a lawsuit over soured mortgage securities, the regulator of the two housing finance firms said on Thursday.
World manufacturing ends 2013 on a strong note
NEW YORK/LONDON/BEIJING (Reuters) - Global manufacturing ended 2013 on a strong note, as major exporters like the United States, Japan and Germany all saw demand pick up, although China's performance remained modest, surveys showed on Thursday.
Martha Stewart, Macy's settle lawsuit over Penney deal
(Reuters) - Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc said it settled a lawsuit with retailer Macy's Inc over a home products deal with department store J.C. Penney Co Inc .
Private investors increasingly keen on Ally shares
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Demand for Ally Financial's shares has been ramping up, with investors paying increasingly high prices in recent private transactions that signal the U.S. government could be able to sell its remaining stake in the auto lender this year, sources familiar with the situation said.
Marchionne's Fiat-Chrysler coup the beginning, not the end
PARIS (Reuters) - Fiat's deal to take full control of Chrysler on better-than-expected terms has cemented CEO Sergio Marchionne's dealmaking reputation, but he might run out of road to channel that drive into operational success for the business.
Early spotlight on Portugal, France in new credit ratings calendar
LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's new calendar for sovereign credit ratings, an EU measure to shine a light on the actions of ratings agencies, will in its busy first few weeks thrust the market spotlight on bailed-out Portugal and recently downgraded France.
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