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Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Let It Shine

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The 7 Best From Cannes

There were some excellent things to see — but what's worth paying attention to?

including "Mommy"

The 7 Best Movies From The 2014 Cannes Film Festival

The festival’s top prize, the Palme d’Or, went to the Turkish drama "Winter Sleep," but there were plenty of other excellent movies to be seen this year.

— by Alison Willmore

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Capital debate

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Just in time for the Friday afternoon news dump (on a holiday weekend!), the FT's Chris Giles dropped a bombshell: Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," he alleged, is full of data errors. After correcting the mistakes, he says (in a separate post), "two of Capital in the 21st Century's central findings – that wealth inequality has begun to rise over the past 30 years and that the US obviously has a more unequal distribution of wealth than Europe – no longer seem to hold".

Giles' allegations boil down to three points, detailed in a long blog post: first, Piketty transcribed some numbers into Excel wrong. Second, Piketty made some unexplained changes to the data. Finally, Piketty used questionable methods to arrive at his conclusions. In addition, Giles takes very specific issue with Piketty's data on wealth inequality in Britain, claiming that "once more reliable British results are included, there is no sign that wealth inequality in Europe is rising again".

"That is a damning conclusion, and if it holds up to scrutiny, would significantly undermine the case Mr. Piketty mounts," says Neil Irwin. Piketty, however, responded to Irwin: "Every wealth ranking in the world shows that the top is rising faster than average wealth. If the FT comes with a wealth ranking showing a different conclusion, they should publish it!" Paul Krugman adds that "the fact that Giles reaches that conclusion is a strong indicator that he himself is doing something wrong".

Piketty's response is slowly emerging. He published a robust, but fairly general, post in the FT. However, he also told Newsweek's Leah McGrath Goodman that he was ambushed by the FT and not given proper time to respond. To AFP, he said the FT "is being dishonest is to suggest that this changes things in the conclusions I make".

Being as Giles' allegations accuse Piketty of major Excel errors, there's a natural comparison to last year's Reinhart and Rogoff debacle. But Mike Konczal says they are nothing alike (after all, Marketplace reports that 88% of all spreadsheets have some sort of error). Konczal breaks down the comparison piece by piece, noting that Piketty was much more transparent about his data than R-R, and Giles' accusations were much more nitpicky than the R-R error.

The blogosphere so far seems unconvinced by Giles, with reactions ranging from Giles being too nitpicky to Giles being just plain wrong (see Jérémie Cohen-Setton for a fuller roundup of the responses). "It will take future research to show whether the broad strokes of Mr Piketty's book are correct or not. But that was true before the FT analysis was published as well", says the Economist's Ryan Avent. Justin Wolfers thinks that "in trying to put together its own series, the paper is at least as guilty as Mr. Piketty of making some pretty big assumptions about the comparability of quite different data sets".

"For the moment, the FT's strongest claims don't seem all that clearly supported by their analysis", writes Matt Yglesias. And finally, says Nate Silver, "People who are shocked when errors are uncovered in data probably haven't spent much time actually working with data". — Shane Ferro

On to today's links:

Ouch
Geithner to Treasury was "the single worst political mistake Obama made" - Jesse Eisinger

Alpha
Radical anti-capitalist hackers fight for the right to a reasonable EV/EBITA multiple - Tim Fernholz

Takedowns
Michael Kinsley's Glenn Greenwald review was neither fair, accurate, nor well-argued - Margaret Sullivan

Correlation of the Day
Inequality and political polarization - Wonkblog

Wonks
"We have been trying to distinguish between the 'deserving' and 'undeserving' poor for over eight hundred years" - Francis Coppola
"All studies of mobility across wealth percentiles should be sent straight to the trashcan" - Matthew Martin

Interesting But Wrong
How entropy explains inequality - Science

Billionaire Whimsy
Bloomberg says the Koch brothers and Alwaleed al Saud are self-made men - Matt Yglesias

Study of the Day
"Impact of Yankee Stadium bat day on blunt trauma in northern New York City" - NBCI

Welcome to Adulthood
Not going to college out of fear it's a bad deal "is among the most economically irrational decisions" - David Leonhardt
Five reasons the young have it economically tough - Cardiff Garcia

Desperation
Starbucks will start selling burgers on croissants - Eater

 

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Business Today: S&P 500 ends at record high for second straight session

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05/27/2014
Reuters Election 2012 Daily round-up of the day's top news from the campaign trail, the White House and all the politics in between
S&P 500 ends at record high for second straight session
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed at a record high for a second straight session on Tuesday, buoyed by the latest round of merger activity and as expectations for rate cuts at the European Central Bank stoked investors' appetite for equities.
U.S. factory, confidence data boost growth prospects
WASHINGTON, May 27 (Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly rose in April and consumer confidence perked up in May, supporting views of a rebound in economic growth.
Pilgrim's bid for Hillshire puts Pinnacle deal in peril
(Reuters) - Pilgrim's Pride Corp on Tuesday offered to buy Hillshire Brands Co in an all-cash deal valued at $6.4 billion, as the world's second-largest chicken processor seeks to expand its protein footprint with Hillshire's sausages and lunch meats.
Allergan makes case against Valeant takeover ahead of higher bid
(Reuters) - Allergan Inc on Tuesday built its case with investors for rejecting a $47 billion takeover offer from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, , saying the Canadian drugmaker has overstated the possible savings from the deal.
Citigroup sees second quarter markets revenue down as much as 25 percent: CFO
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Markets revenue at Citigroup Inc is expected to decline between 20 and 25 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier because of lackluster fixed-income trading, Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach said on Tuesday.
BofA's investment bank aims to be more diversified, global
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp is looking to diversify its investment banking business by doing more equity underwriting and merger advisory work and by winning more clients outside the United States, a senior executive said on Tuesday.
Ex-Goldman trader Tourre says won't appeal SEC case
TeNEW YORK (Reuters) - Former Goldman Sachs Group Inc trader Fabrice Tourre said Tuesday he would not appeal an order requiring he pay more than $825,000 after a jury found him liable for defrauding investors in a failed mortgage deal.
Pimco rehires Paul McCulley, now as chief economist
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Pacific Investment Management Co said on Tuesday it has rehired Paul McCulley, a former portfolio manager and top U.S. Federal Reserve watcher at the bond giant, in its latest reshuffle after the high-profile departure of former chief executive Mohamed El-Erian earlier this year.
GE, Siemens defend rival plans for France's Alstom
PARIS (Reuters) - General Electric and Siemens defended rival proposals to buy the power arm of Alstom on Tuesday, both assuring France that its prized engineering firm would emerge strengthened, including in its remaining transport business.
Airbus Group CEO keeping options open on new term
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Airbus Group Chief Executive Tom Enders has ruled out taking another job in aerospace or going into politics when he eventually decides to step down from Europe's largest aerospace group - but is not yet ready to say when that will be.
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