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 Greetings, THE REPUBLICAN RACE: Is Ron Paul on the verge of winning Iowa and scrambling the race? Or are Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney solidly the front-runners? Both can be true. Gingrich's and Romney both lead the polls with "soft support," but most very often majorities say they would refuse to vote for the other candidates. By contrast Paul's supporters are extremely loyal, and his campaign, which is miles more professional this time, seems capable of turning them out. But a Paul win in Iowa is likely to result in a media stories like "Iowa is irrelevant" and "Will Ron Paul run in a third party?" But the fact is that Ron Paul can win Iowa, fail to win the nomination and still be relevant. Paul has launched a movement within the Republican party, one that can continue through his close ideological allies: his son, Rand Paul, Senator Mike Lee, and Congressman Justin Amash. It is highly unlikely that he would jeopardize this by running as a spoiler candidate. As for Gingrich and Romney, it is fully possible that both of them remain extremely weak front-runners who would have difficulty beating Obama. Gingrich may have already peaked in Iowa. The only questions that matter: Will Gingrich fades as quickly as Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann before him? Can Perry or Huntsman capitalize on his misfortune before the primary contests? OBAMA AT FT. BRAGG: Today Obama took the stage today at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina to welcome troops back from from Iraq, noting "there is something profound about the end of a war that has lasted so long." It was a beautiful frame for the commander in chief. Obama did not overemphasize a declaration of victory but instead focused on honoring the troops and the sacrifices they and their families have made. The grandeur of the occasion is a sharp contrast to the follies of the GOP primary, and Washington's showdown over the payroll tax-cut extension.
FROM THIS MORNING:
Shorter Bill Keller: It's not so easy being a friend of the U.S. Shorter George Will: Say what you like about Bain Capital, but I'm disgusted that Newt Gingrich criticized profit-making. THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On December 14, 1799, George Washington died. On December 14, 1863, President Abraham Lincoln granted amnesty to his half-sister, Mrs. Emilie Todd Helm, a widow of the Confederate brigadier general, Benjamin Hardin Helm. On December 14, 2003, George W. Bush announced that former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein had been captured by U.S. forces.
TWEETS OF THE DAY:
From Matt Feeney on what's really behind Time's Person Of The Year selection 
And from Ian Koski, communications director for Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) who defeated O'Donnell in the 2010 general election, on O'Donnell's big endorsement of Mitt Romney 
WHAT'S NEXT:
The White House continues its standoff with Republicans over appropriates and the payroll-tax cut extension. Read more from Zeke Miller. Yet another Republican debate on Thursday night. Enjoy the week, Michael Michael Brendan Dougherty Politics Editor Please follow Politics on Twitter and Facebook. | 
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