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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The Number Of Star Upperclassmen In College Basketball Has Been Declining For 25 Years

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The Number Of Star Upperclassmen In College Basketball Has Been Declining For 25 Years

Everybody is going nuts over this year's freshman class in college basketball and how it is going to be a major factor in next year's NBA draft. This has once again brought up the topic of "one-and-done" college basketball players that bolt for the NBA after their freshman season.

Starting in 2006, when the NBA banned high school kids from the NBA draft, there has been an increase in the number of freshman selected among the top ten picks of the draft. However, as we can see below, the number of upperclassmen (juniors and seniors) selected had already been declining for years (cont. below)...



As recently as 1994, nine of the top ten picks of the draft were either juniors or seniors. In the last six seasons, there has not been a single draft with more than three upperclassmen taken early.

Of course, there have been other factors, such as the increase in the number of international players. However, ultimately, the decrease in star college players staying in college for 3-4 years is more about all players wanting to get to the NBA earlier and less about the NBA's ban on high school players.
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