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Something Has Really Shifted In Europe This Time
It's tempting and easy to just say that whatever European leaders are cooking up right now is bound to fail, like every other past attempt at ending the crisis.
But here's a noteworthy market fact: Italian yields are collapsing today. Whereas a few days ago, the Italian 10-year bond was yielding 7.3%, today, that has fallen to less than 6%. And nobody is challenging it either... it's been improving all day.
What's going on? It's not just that Italy announced austerity measures yesterday -- since that's really nothing new -- it's that the market anticipates that after a fiscal compact is reached, the ECB will step in and backstop the whole thing, and that's a gamechanger.
Remember, even after the ballyhooed October 26 deal, Italian yields didn't even end lower on the day, which was an immediate sign of how little confidence the market has in the agreement.
Here's the intra-day look at Italian 10-year yields.
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